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Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia

Author

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  • Kazakova, Maria

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Nesterova, Kristina

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

According to the official budget statistics, the threat of destabilization of the Russian budget in the foreseeable future is not visible. However, to fully assess fiscal sustainability is not enough to analyze only the current rates. In the next few decades, Russia is expected to increase in spending on pensions and health care due to demographic factors. In addition, it is expected that the share of revenues from the oil and gas sector in total budget revenue and as a percentage of GDP will be gradually reduced due to the low growth of oil production. In this paper we present a long-term (up to 2100) forecast of the main budget parameters (income and expenses) in Russia, as well as evaluation of the budget gap. It is shown that the threat to the stability of the budget in the long run does not come as much of the growth in social spending, but on the reduction of oil and gas revenues. In conclusion, the authors formulated conclusions of the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazakova, Maria & Nesterova, Kristina, 2015. "Long-Term Forecast of the Main Parameters of the Budgetary System of Russia," Published Papers 2309, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:2309
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    budget policy; forcasting; Russia; GDP; pensions;
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