IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/81830.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Directed technical change: A macro perspective on life cycle earnings profiles

Author

Listed:
  • Cragun, Randy
  • Tamura, Robert
  • Jerzmanowski, Michal

Abstract

We propose a new macroeconomic mechanism for generating patterns in age-earnings profiles based on directed technical change. The mechanism does not depend on changes in the human capital of the individual; rather differences in the human capital shares of age groups affect the profitability of developing age-specific technologies, biasing innovation toward improving the productivity of workers whose cohorts provide large shares of the labor force's human capital. The theory should be taken as supplemental to (rather than replacing) human-capital-based theories of age-earnings profiles. Using recently developed data and human capital estimates, we simulate reductions in wages due to age-biased directed technical change over workers' lives for most of the world's nations over two centuries. Our simulations indicate that age-specific directed technical change contributes to wage concavity for the average country by cohort group. Because younger workers make up a larger share of human capital in most years and countries, most cohorts in most countries experienced wage gains early in life and losses later in life from age-specific directed technology, making life-cycle earnings profiles flatter. The late-life losses are larger than the early-life gains, increasing concavity in life-cycle earnings profiles. We also calculate the present value of lifetime wage gains from age-specific endogenous technology, and find particularly large and economically-significant gains for baby boomers and losses for cohorts born during low population growth periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Cragun, Randy & Tamura, Robert & Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2017. "Directed technical change: A macro perspective on life cycle earnings profiles," MPRA Paper 81830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81830
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81830/1/MPRA_paper_81830.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/83264/1/MPRA_paper_83264.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin M. Murphy & Finis Welch, 1992. "The Structure of Wages," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 285-326.
    2. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2001. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(2), pages 705-746.
    3. David Lagakos & Benjamin Moll & Tommaso Porzio & Nancy Qian & Todd Schoellman, 2018. "Life Cycle Wage Growth across Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 797-849.
    4. Murphy, Kevin M & Welch, Finis, 1990. "Empirical Age-Earnings Profiles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(2), pages 202-229, April.
    5. Jones, Charles I & Williams, John C, 2000. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Economics of Investment in R&D," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 65-85, March.
    6. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mincer, Jacob, 1997. "The Production of Human Capital and the Life Cycle of Earnings: Variations on a Theme," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 26-47, January.
    8. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    10. Daron Acemoglu, 2007. "Equilibrium Bias of Technology," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1371-1409, September.
    11. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, September.
    12. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, "undated". "The Productivity of Nations," Working Papers 96012, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    13. Miguel-Angel Martín & Agustín Herranz, 2004. "Human capital and economic growth in Spanish regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(4), pages 257-264, November.
    14. Chui, Michael & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2001. "Winners and losers in a North-South model of growth, innovation and product cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-365, August.
    15. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    16. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    17. Psacharopoulos, George, 1994. "Returns to investment in education: A global update," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 1325-1343, September.
    18. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    19. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    20. repec:kap:iaecre:v:10:y:2004:i:4:p:257-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2006. "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 499-522, June.
    22. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 281-281.
    23. Peter J. Klenow & Mark Bils, 2000. "Does Schooling Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1160-1183, December.
    24. Tamura, Robert & Dwyer, Gerald P & Devereux, John & Baier, Scott, 2012. "Data appendix for economic growth in the long run," MPRA Paper 41325, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jens J. Krüger, 2017. "Revisiting the world technology frontier: a directional distance function approach," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 67-95, March.
    2. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Tamura, Robert, 2019. "Directed technological change & cross-country income differences: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    4. Córdoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2013. "What explains schooling differences across countries?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 184-202.
    5. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Issler, Joao Victor & de Abreu Pessoa, Samuel, 2004. "Testing production functions used in empirical growth studies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 29-35, April.
    6. Caselli, Francesco & Ciccone, Antonio, 2013. "The contribution of schooling in development accounting: Results from a nonparametric upper bound," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 199-211.
    7. Marcelo Soto, 2006. "Estimating the Social Return on Schooling," Papers of the Annual IUE-SUNY Cortland Conference in Economics, in: Oguz Esen & Ayla Ogus (ed.), Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources, pages 43-65, Izmir University of Economics.
    8. Growiec, Jakub, 2010. "Human Capital, Aggregation, And Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 189-211, April.
    9. Campbell, Susanna G. & Üngör, Murat, 2020. "Revisiting human capital and aggregate income differences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 43-64.
    10. Lee, Jong-Wha & Lee, Hanol, 2016. "Human capital in the long run," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 147-169.
    11. Areendam Chanda & Beatrice Farkas, 2009. "Technology-Skill Complementarity and International TFP Differences," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    12. Carstensen Kai & Hartmann Susanne & Gundlach Erich, 2009. "The Augmented Solow Model with Mincerian Schooling and Externalities," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 448-463, December.
    13. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    14. Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Public education, technological change and economic prosperity: semi-endogenous growth revisited," PGDA Working Papers 9012, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    15. Francesco Caselli & Wilbur John Coleman II, 2006. "The World Technology Frontier," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 499-522, June.
    16. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    17. Marcelo Soto, 2006. "The Causal Effect of Education on Aggregate Income," Working Papers 0605, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    18. Pandey, Manish, 2008. "Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1587-1601, December.
    19. Antonio Ciccone & Elias Papaioannou, 2009. "Human Capital, the Structure of Production, and Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 66-82, February.
    20. Papageorgiou, Chris & Perez-Sebastian, Fidel, 2006. "Dynamics in a non-scale R&D growth model with human capital: Explaining the Japanese and South Korean development experiences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 901-930, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Directed technical change; directed technology; human capital; experience; wage profile; wage differential; age-earnings profile; endogenous technology;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81830. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.