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Drought management plans and water availability in agriculture:A risk assessment model for a Southern European basin

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  • Pérez Blanco, Carlos Dionisio
  • Gómez, Carlos Mario

Abstract

The Drought Management Plans (DMPs) are regulatory instruments that establish priorities among the different water uses and define more stringent constraints to access to publicly provided water during droughts, especially for non-priority uses such as agriculture. These plans have recently become widespread across EU southern basins. However, in some of these basins the plans were approved without an assessment of the potential impacts that they may have on the economic activities exposed to water restrictions. This paper develops a stochastic methodology to estimate the expected water availability in agriculture that results from the decision rules of the recently approved DMPs. The methodology is applied to the particular case of the Guadalquivir River Basin in southern Spain. Results show that if DMPs are successfully enforced, available water will satisfy in average 62.2% of current demand, and this figure may drop to 50.2% by the end of the century as a result of climate change. This is much below the minimum threshold of 90% that has been guaranteed to irrigators so far.

Suggested Citation

  • Pérez Blanco, Carlos Dionisio & Gómez, Carlos Mario, 2014. "Drought management plans and water availability in agriculture:A risk assessment model for a Southern European basin," MPRA Paper 60590, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 May 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:60590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
    2. Julio Berbel & Solveig Kolberg & Julia Martin-Ortega, 2012. "Assessment of the Draft Hydrological Basin Plan of the Guadalquivir River Basin (Spain)," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 43-55.
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    2. Rolandas Drejeris & Martynas Rusteika, 2022. "New Approach to the Public Authorities’ Activities Development in the Crop Insurance System: Lithuanian Case," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Mehmet Dikici, 2022. "Drought Analysis for the Seyhan Basin with Vegetation Indices and Comparison with Meteorological Different Indices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-17, April.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R5 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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