IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/105612.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Corralling Expectations: The Role of Institutions in (Hyper)Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Hartwell, Christopher A
  • Szybisz, Martin Andres

Abstract

Changes in prices and especially in aggregate price levels are subjected to complex dynamics and extreme endogeneity, as expectations, current conditions, policies, and the rules of the game combine to form inflationary outcomes. This paper explores how inflationary expectations are set – and limited – via an exploration of the role of institutions in corralling expectations. Using a continuous time formulation of the second derivative of the price level, we introduce expectations and institutional related variables to understand how expectations can become unstable. Testing the model on monthly institutional and macroeconomic data for several countries, we find that one institution in particular, property rights, keeps inflationary expectations in check and stops high inflation from becoming hyperinflation. In a situation where property rights have broken down, however, expectations are allowed to roam free and quickly become unstable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hartwell, Christopher A & Szybisz, Martin Andres, 2021. "Corralling Expectations: The Role of Institutions in (Hyper)Inflation," MPRA Paper 105612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/105612/1/MPRA_paper_105612.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlos Capistr¡N & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, March.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
    3. Mizuno, T. & Takayasu, M. & Takayasu, H., 2002. "The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyper-inflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 411-419.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    5. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "Money, Interest, and Prices," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Haim Barkai & Stanley Fischer & Nissan Liviatan (ed.), Monetary Theory and Thought, chapter 2, pages 15-31, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Janet L. Yellen, 2017. "Inflation, uncertainty, and monetary policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 194-207, October.
    8. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.
    9. Szybisz, Martín A. & Szybisz, Leszek, 2017. "Hyperinflation in Brazil, Israel, and Nicaragua revisited," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 1998. "The past and future of commercial banking viewed through an incomplete contract lens," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Aug, pages 524-550.
    11. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
    12. Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "The behavior of money demand in the Chinese hyperinflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 145-154.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    14. Barro, Robert J, 1970. "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 1228-1263, Nov.-Dec..
    15. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    16. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2017. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    17. Hartwell,Christopher A., 2016. "Two Roads Diverge," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107530980.
    18. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1976. "The Case of the Missing Money," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 683-740.
    19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    20. Sornette, D & Takayasu, H & Zhou, W.-X, 2003. "Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 325(3), pages 492-506.
    21. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 365-396, March.
    22. Khan, Mohsin S, 1977. "The Variability of Expectations in Hyperinflations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(4), pages 817-827, August.
    23. Judd, John P & Scadding, John L, 1982. "The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function: A Survey of the Post-1973 Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 993-1023, September.
    24. Carare, Alina & Stone, Mark R., 2006. "Inflation targeting regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1297-1315, July.
    25. John Ashworth & Lynne Evans, 1998. "Functional form of the demand for real balances in Cagan's hyperinflation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1617-1623.
    26. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    27. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    28. Sokic Alexandre, 2012. "The Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflation and the Appropriate Specification of the Demand for Money," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 142-160, May.
    29. Goodfriend, Marvin S., 1982. "An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 43-57.
    30. Jacobs, Rodney L, 1975. "A Difficulty with Monetarist Models of Hyperinflation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 337-360, September.
    31. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    32. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    33. Michael Woodford, 2013. "Macroeconomic Analysis Without the Rational Expectations Hypothesis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 303-346, May.
    34. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1996. "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 243-276, June.
    35. Mladenovic, Zorica & Petrovic, Pavle, 2010. "Cagan's paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1369-1384, November.
    36. Michelis, Andrea De & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2016. "Raising an inflation target: The Japanese experience with Abenomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 67-87.
    37. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(2), pages 197-216.
    38. Jeffrey Sachs, 1986. "The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 2073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Steve H. Hanke & Nicholas Krus & Joanna Gawlik, 2020. "Hyperinflation in the General Government: German-Occupied Poland During World War II," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 21(2), pages 115-134, April.
    40. Friedman, Benjamin M, 1978. "Stability and Rationality in Models of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(1), pages 45-64, February.
    41. Kostyshyna, Olena, 2012. "Application Of An Adaptive Step-Size Algorithm In Models Of Hyperinflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S3), pages 355-375, November.
    42. John P. Judd & John L. Scadding, 1982. "The search for a stable money demand function: a survey of the post- 1973 literature," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 109, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    43. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2018. "The “Hierarchy of Institutions” reconsidered: Monetary policy and its effect on the rule of law in interwar Poland," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-70.
    44. Petrovic, Pavle & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1996. "The monetary dynamics in the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991-1993: The Cagan money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 467-483, November.
    45. Bordo, Michael D & Jonung, Lars & Siklos, Pierre L, 1997. "Institutional Change and the Velocity of Money: A Century of Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 710-724, October.
    46. Koyama, Mark & Johnson, Blake, 2015. "Monetary stability and the rule of law," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 46-58.
    47. Beatrix Paal, 2000. "Destabilizing effects of a successful stabilization: a forward-looking explanation of the second Hungarian hyperinflation," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 15(3), pages 599-630.
    48. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2019. "Short waves in Hungary, 1923 and 1946: Persistence, chaos, and (lack of) control," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 532-550.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    3. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    4. Ivo Maes & Piet Clement, 2018. "Alexandre Lamfalussy and the monetary policy debates among central bankers during the Great Inflation," Working Paper Research 341, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Ball, Laurence, 2012. "Short-run money demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 622-633.
    6. Zorica Mladenovic & Bent Nielsen, 2009. "The role of income in money demand during hyper-inflation: the case of Yugoslavia," Economics Papers 2009-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    8. Hassan, Rubina & Shahzad, Mirza Muhammad, 2011. "A macroeconometric framework for monetary policy evaluation: A case study of Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 118-137, January.
    9. Duca, John V. & VanHoose, David D., 2004. "Recent developments in understanding the demand for money," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 247-272.
    10. Tourinho, Octávio A. F ., 1997. "The Demand and Supply of Money Under High Inflation: Brazil 1974-1994," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 17(2), November.
    11. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
    12. Faust, Jon & Whiteman, Charles H., 1997. "General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and criti," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 121-161, December.
    13. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Central bank communication that works: Lessons from lab experiments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 760-780.
    14. Jocelyn Horne & Mehdi Monadjemi, 1985. "Debt, Credit and Monetary Targeting in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(2), pages 522-534, June.
    15. Sergey Drobyshevsky & G.Kuzmicheva & Elena Sinelnikova & Pavel Trunin, 2010. "Modeling monetary demand in the Russian economy over 1999–2008," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 136P.
    16. Sosunov, K., 2013. "Estimation of the Money Demand Function in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 89-99.
    17. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2019. "The demand for Divisia Money: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Ehrmann, Michael, 2021. "Point targets, tolerance bands or target ranges? Inflation target types and the anchoring of inflation expectations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "Expectation formation in a new environment: Evidence from the German reunification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 301-320.
    20. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutions; property rights; expectations; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105612. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.