IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pbs/ecofin/2019-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Transmission of sectoral debt shocks in OECD countries: Evidence from the income channel

Author

Listed:
  • Georgios Magkonis

    (University of Portsmouth)

  • Anastasia Theofilakou

    (Hellenic Ministry of Finance)

Abstract

We examine the propagation of debt shocks across sectors of the economy for OECD countries. Our focus lies on assessing the importance of the income channel as a main transmission mechanism of such shocks. Employing a Bayesian Panel VAR, we find strong debt contagion effects across sectors, which work through the income channel. Higher non-financial corporate debt drives down household incomes, increasing pressures for household deleveraging. By contrast, an increase in household debt boosts real incomes and domestic demand, and results in higher corporate leverage. Finally, we find that growth effects of sectoral debt shocks are conditional on country idiosyncrasies.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Magkonis & Anastasia Theofilakou, 2019. "Transmission of sectoral debt shocks in OECD countries: Evidence from the income channel," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-02, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2019-02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.port.ac.uk/EconFinance/PBSEconFin_2019_02.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:oup:jeurec:v:14:y:2016:i:1:p:1-6. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
    4. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    5. Carlos Cuerpo & Inês Drumond & Julia Lendvai & Peter Pontuch & Rafal Raciborski, 2013. "Indebtedness, Deleveraging Dynamics and Macroeconomic Adjustment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 477, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    6. Andrea Pescatori & Damiano Sandri & John Simon, 2014. "Debt and Growth; Is There a Magic Threshold?," IMF Working Papers 14/34, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    8. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    10. Manuela Goretti & Marcos R Souto, 2013. "Macro-Financial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery," IMF Working Papers 13/154, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Aurora Mordonu, 2017. "Interlinkages Between Household and Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1029-1055, November.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    14. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    16. Atif Mian & Kamalesh Rao & Amir Sufi, 2013. "Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(4), pages 1687-1726.
    17. Ruscher Eric & Wolff Guntram B., 2013. "Corporate Balance Sheet Adjustment: Stylized Facts, Causes and Consequences," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 117-138, August.
    18. Hasko, Harri, 2007. "Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic : the role of monetary and fiscal policy in public debt dynamics since the 1970s," Research Discussion Papers 28/2007, Bank of Finland.
    19. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    20. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    21. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    22. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2013. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Model of the Credit Channel," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(571), pages 906-931, September.
    23. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    24. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2005. "Deficits and Debt in the Short and Long Run," NBER Working Papers 11630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2018. "Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1087-1105, May.
    26. Sally Chen & Minsuk Kim & Marijn Otte & Kevin Wiseman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2015. "Private Sector Deleveraging and Growth Following Busts," IMF Working Papers 15/35, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Filippo Occhino, 2010. "Is debt overhang causing firms to underinvest?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue jul20.
    28. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    29. Lof, Matthijs & Malinen, Tuomas, 2014. "Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 403-407.
    30. Dieppe, Alistair & van Roye, Björn & Legrand, Romain, 2016. "The BEAR toolbox," Working Paper Series 1934, European Central Bank.
    31. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2011. "Using inflation to erode the US public debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 524-541.
    32. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    33. Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2016. "Sovereign Debt And Financial Crises: Theory And Historical Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-6, February.
    34. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2010. "Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9111.
    35. Alfred Greiner, 2013. "Sustainable Public Debt and Economic Growth under Wage Rigidity," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 272-292, May.
    36. Dotsey, Michael, 1994. "Some unpleasant supply side arithmetic," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 507-524, June.
    37. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    38. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    39. Filippo Occhino & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Debt overhang and credit risk in a business cycle model," Working Papers (Old Series) 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 2010.
    40. Romanos Priftis & Anastasia Theofilakou, 2018. "Growth Effects of Corporate Balance Sheet Adjustments in the EU: An Econometric and Model-based Assessment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 076, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic shocks; sectoral debt; panel BVAR;

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2019-02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ansgar Wohlschlegel) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ansgar Wohlschlegel to update the entry or send us the correct email address. General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/depbsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.