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The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Carreira, Igor
  • Costa, Francisco J M

    (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance)

  • Pessoa, Joao Paulo

Abstract

This paper quantifies the relative footprint of trade and agricultural productivity on deforestation in Brazil between 2000 and 2017. Using remote-sensing data, we find that these two phenomena have distinct effects on land use. Greater exposure to new genetically engineered soy seeds is associated with faster deforestation through the expansion of cropland. We find no association between exposure to demand from China and deforestation – although, trade induces conversion of cropland to pastureland. Our results suggest that, when taken together, agriculture productivity gains, and not trade, were the main driver of deforestation and the expansion of the agriculture sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco J M & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2022. "The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil," SocArXiv hy3np, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hy3np
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hy3np
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    Cited by:

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    5. Moretti Elia & Loreau Michel & Benzaquen Michael, 2025. "A Global Systems Perspective on Food Demand, Deforestation and Agricultural Sustainability," Papers 2510.14720, arXiv.org.
    6. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina, 2024. "Unintended environmental consequences of anti-corruption strategies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Rafael Araujo & Vitor Possebom, 2025. "Potato Potahto in the FAO-GAEZ Productivity Measures? Nonclassical Measurement Error with Multiple Proxies," Papers 2502.12141, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    8. Leila Pereira & Rafael Pucci, 2024. "A Tale of Gold and Blood: The Consequences of Market Deregulation on Local Violence," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
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    12. Cícero, Vinicius Curti & Heras-Recuero, Laura, 2025. "The Consumption Side of Trade Shocks: Inequality Dynamics and Luxury Imports," SocArXiv 9kh2g_v1, Center for Open Science.
    13. Huang, Kaixing & You, Yaxuan, 2024. "The Unexpected Impact of Genetically Modified Crops on Global Carbon Emissions," MPRA Paper 122650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    16. Xinming Du & Lei Li & Eric Zou, 2024. "Trade, Trees, and Lives," NBER Working Papers 33143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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