IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/hy3np.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Carreira, Igor
  • Costa, Francisco J M

    (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance)

  • Pessoa, Joao Paulo

Abstract

This paper quantifies the relative footprint of trade and agricultural productivity on deforestation in Brazil between 2000 and 2017. Using remote-sensing data, we find that these two phenomena have distinct effects on land use. Greater exposure to new genetically engineered soy seeds is associated with faster deforestation through the expansion of cropland. We find no association between exposure to demand from China and deforestation – although, trade induces conversion of cropland to pastureland. Our results suggest that, when taken together, agriculture productivity gains, and not trade, were the main driver of deforestation and the expansion of the agriculture sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco J M & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2022. "The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil," SocArXiv hy3np, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hy3np
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/hy3np
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/62ba5624ac270d02f06ca87d/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/hy3np?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costa, Francisco & Garred, Jason & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2016. "Winners and losers from a commodities-for-manufactures trade boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 50-69.
    2. Barrows, Geoffrey & Ollivier, Hélène, 2021. "Foreign demand, developing country exports, and CO2 emissions: Firm-level evidence from India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    4. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    5. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    6. Paula Bustos & Gabriel Garber & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2020. "Capital Accumulation and Structural Transformation [“Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 1037-1094.
    7. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    8. Heß, Simon & Jaimovich, Dany & Schündeln, Matthias, 2021. "Environmental effects of development programs: Experimental evidence from West African dryland forests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2014:i:2:p:939-993. is not listed on IDEAS
    10. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    11. Ufuk Akcigit & Marc Melitz, 2021. "International Trade and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 29611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Palmer, Charles & di Falco, Salvatore, 2013. "Dynamics of indirect land-use change: Empirical evidence from Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 377-393.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    14. Seema Jayachandran, 2022. "How Economic Development Influences the Environment," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 229-252, August.
    15. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    16. Harding, Torfinn & Herzberg, Julika & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2021. "Commodity prices and robust environmental regulation: Evidence from deforestation in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    17. Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
    18. Jevan M. Cherniwchan & M. Scott Taylor, 2022. "International Trade and the Environment: Three Remaining Empirical Challenges," NBER Working Papers 30020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. McArthur, John W. & McCord, Gordon C., 2017. "Fertilizing growth: Agricultural inputs and their effects in economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 133-152.
    20. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    21. Bulte, Erwin H. & Damania, Richard & Lopez, Ramon, 2007. "On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 277-295, November.
    22. Burgess, Robin & Costa, Francisco J M & Olken, Ben, 2019. "The Brazilian Amazon’s Double Reversal of Fortune," SocArXiv 67xg5, Center for Open Science.
    23. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    24. Paula Bustos, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Exports, and Technology Upgrading: Evidence on the Impact of MERCOSUR on Argentinian Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 304-340, February.
    25. Araujo, Rafael & Costa, Francisco J M & Sant'Anna, Marcelo, 2020. "Efficient Forestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Evidence from a Dynamic Model," SocArXiv 8yfr7, Center for Open Science.
    26. Susana Ferreira, 2004. "Deforestation, Property Rights, and International Trade," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(2), pages 174-193.
    27. Jennifer Alix-Garcia & Craig McIntosh & Katharine R. E. Sims & Jarrod R. Welch, 2013. "The Ecological Footprint of Poverty Alleviation: Evidence from Mexico's Oportunidades Program," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 417-435, May.
    28. Abman, Ryan & Carney, Conor, 2020. "Agricultural productivity and deforestation: Evidence from input subsidies and ethnic favoritism in Malawi," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    29. Clare A. Balboni & Aaron Berman & Robin Burgess & Benjamin A. Olken, 2023. "The Economics of Tropical Deforestation," NBER Working Papers 31410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Bombardini, Matilde & Li, Bingjing, 2020. "Trade, pollution and mortality in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    31. Pellegrina, Heitor S., 2022. "Trade, productivity, and the spatial organization of agriculture: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    32. Balboni, Clare & Berman, Aaron & Burgess, Robin & Olken, Benjamin A., 2023. "The economics of tropical deforestation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120074, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Cory Smith, 2016. "Evolving Comparative Advantage and the Impact of Climate Change in Agricultural Markets: Evidence from 1.7 Million Fields around the World," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 205-248.
    34. Joseph S. Shapiro, 2016. "Trade Costs, CO2, and the Environment," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 220-254, November.
    35. Douglas Gollin & David Lagakos & Michael E. Waugh, 2014. "The Agricultural Productivity Gap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 939-993.
    36. Ryan Abman & Clark Lundberg, 2020. "Does Free Trade Increase Deforestation? The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 35-72.
    37. Brian R. Copeland & Joseph S. Shapiro & M. Scott Taylor, 2021. "Globalization and the Environment," NBER Working Papers 28797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. A. Baccini & S. J. Goetz & W. S. Walker & N. T. Laporte & M. Sun & D. Sulla-Menashe & J. Hackler & P. S. A. Beck & R. Dubayah & M. A. Friedl & S. Samanta & R. A. Houghton, 2012. "Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 182-185, March.
    39. Edward Barbier & Michael Rauscher, 1994. "Trade, tropical deforestation and policy interventions," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 4(1), pages 75-90, February.
    40. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    41. Leblois, Antoine & Damette, Olivier & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2017. "What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 82-102.
    42. Andrew D. Foster & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2003. "Economic Growth and the Rise of Forests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 601-637.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Araujo, Rafael & Borges, Bruna & Costa, Francisco J M & Santos, Kelly, 2024. "Seeds of Disparity: the Gender Land Divide from Brazil's Agricultural Transition," SocArXiv dk4bc, Center for Open Science.
    2. Leila Pereira & Rafael Pucci, 2024. "A Tale of Gold and Blood: The Consequences of Market Deregulation on Local Violence," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Araujo, Rafael & Costa, Francisco J M & Sant'Anna, Marcelo, 2020. "Efficient Forestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Evidence from a Dynamic Model," SocArXiv 8yfr7, Center for Open Science.
    3. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Unfried, Kerstin & Wang, Feicheng, 2024. "Importing air pollution? Evidence from China’s plastic waste imports," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2024. "Is There a Bright Side to the China Syndrome? Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-04505684, HAL.
    6. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Bustos, Paula & Castro-Vincenzi, Juan & Monras, Joan, 2018. "Industrialization without Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Kwon, Ohyun & Zhao, Hao & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2023. "Global firms and emissions: Investigating the dual channels of emissions abatement," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    9. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    10. Araujo, Rafael & Borges, Bruna & Costa, Francisco J M & Santos, Kelly, 2024. "Seeds of Disparity: the Gender Land Divide from Brazil's Agricultural Transition," SocArXiv dk4bc, Center for Open Science.
    11. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ayad, Hicham & Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari & Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid & Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil, 2024. "Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Colmer, Jonathan, 2018. "Weather, labor reallocation and industrial production: evidence from India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88695, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    15. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Dai, Mi & Huang, Wei & Zhang, Yifan, 2020. "Persistent effects of initial labor market conditions: The case of China's tariff liberalization after WTO accession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 566-581.
    17. Abman,Ryan Michael & Lundberg,Clark Christopher & Ruta,Michele, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Environmental Provisions in Regional Trade Agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9601, The World Bank.
    18. Christian Darko & Giovanni Occhiali & Enrico Vanino, 2021. "The Chinese are Here: Import Penetration and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 2112-2135, December.
    19. Bård Harstad, 2022. "Trade, Trees, and Contingent Trade Agreements," CESifo Working Paper Series 9596, CESifo.
    20. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:hy3np. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.