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Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (CERGIC - Center for Economic Research on Governance, Inequality and Conflict - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon)

  • Antoine Leblois

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)

  • Raphaël Soubeyran

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier)

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms of deforestation is necessary in order to slow or arrest its progress. To accomplish this requires rigorously estimating the demand for deforestation. We contribute to this endeavor by estimating the effect of crop prices on the demand for conversion of land from forest to agriculture in the tropics during the 21st century. The two main difficulties involved are the lack of harmonized data on local crop prices in the tropics and the fact that they are determined simultaneously with decisions to deforest. We propose a strategy to circumvent these two issues using high-resolution annual forest loss data for the tropics, combined with information on crop-specific agricultural suitability and annual international crop prices. We find that crop price variation has a significant impact on deforestation: increases in crop prices are estimated to be responsible for one-third of total deforestation in the tropics (totaling about 2 million km2) during the period 2001–2018. We also find that the degree of openness to international trade and the level of economic development are first-order local characteristics affecting the magnitude of the impact of crop prices on deforestation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Antoine Leblois & Raphaël Soubeyran, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Post-Print hal-04093064, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04093064
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102819
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-04093064v1
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    Cited by:

    1. Bertille Daran & Clément Nedoncelle, 2025. "The deforestation effect of climate aid [L'effet déforestation de l'aide climatique]," Working Papers hal-05310970, HAL.
    2. Digvijay S. Negi, 2024. "State Mediated Trade, Distortions and Air Pollution," Working Papers 129, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    3. Victoire Girard & Teresa Molina-Mill n & Guillaume Vic, 2022. "Artisanal mining in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2201, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    4. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. Frederik Noack & Dennis Engist & Josephine Gantois & Vasundhara Gaur & Batoule F Hyjazie & Ashley Larsen & Leithen M’gonigle & Anouch Missirian & Matin Qaim & Risa D Sargent & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues , 2024. "Environmental impacts of genetically modified crops [Impacts environnementaux des cultures OGM]," Post-Print hal-04787948, HAL.
    6. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Hauk, Esther, 2024. "To cut or not to cut: Deforestation policy under the shadow of foreign influence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    7. Hamilton, Stephen & Ouvrard, Benjamin, 2025. "Fair Pricing and Structural Excess Supply," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360647, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Léa Crepin & Clément Nedoncelle, 2024. "Foreign demand, soy exports, and deforestation," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 26, Stata Users Group.
    9. Ly, Alpha & Chakir, Raja & Creti, Anna, 2024. "Electrification or deforestation? Evidence from household practices in Côte d’Ivoire," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Ly, Alpha, 2025. "Financial globalization and tropical deforestation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    11. Gallemore, Caleb & Berecha, Gezahegn & Eneyew, Adugna & Grabs, Janina & Jespersen, Kristjan & Kasongi, N.’gwinamila & Mamuye, Melkamu & Maskell, Gina & Mathe, Annkathrin & Mwalutolo, Daniel & Niehues,, 2025. "Avoiding Access Inequity Due to classification errors in zero-deforestation value chains: Coffee and the European union deforestation regulation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2024. "Fertilizer prices and deforestation in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Alan Leal & Maurício Bugarin, 2024. "There is Trouble with the Trees: How to Avoid Trade-Induced Deforestation?," TD NEREUS 5-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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