IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpceem/hal-03352884.html

Crop Prices and Deforestation in the Tropics

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Mathieu Couttenier

    (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Antoine Leblois

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

  • Raphaël Soubeyran

    (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement)

Abstract

Global food demand is rising, pushed by growing world population and dietary changes in developing countries. This encourages farmers to increase crop production which, in turn, increases worldwide demand for agricultural land and the pressure on tropical forests. With a possible doubling of world food demand by 2050, this pressure is not likely to decrease in the next decades. While the impact of food demand on deforestation has been pushed forward in the medias, rigorous evidence using large-N data estimating the causal impact of crop price variations on deforestation remains scarce. Here, we quantify this impact over the twenty first century using high resolution annual forest loss data across the tropics, combined with information about crop-specific agricultural suitability and annual international commodity prices. We find a sizeable impact of price variations on deforestation: crop price variations are estimated to have contributed to 35% of the total predicted deforestation in the tropics over the period 2001-2018. We also highlight that the degree of openness to international trade and level of economic development are first-order local characteristics to explain the magnitude of the impact of crop prices on deforestation.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Antoine Leblois & Raphaël Soubeyran, 2021. "Crop Prices and Deforestation in the Tropics," CEE-M Working Papers hal-03352884, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03352884
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03352884v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03352884v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harding, Torfinn & Herzberg, Julika & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2021. "Commodity prices and robust environmental regulation: Evidence from deforestation in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Magee, Lonnie, 1990. "Transforming the Dependent Variable in Regression Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 315-339, May.
    3. Nicolas Berman & Lorenzo Rotunno & Roberta Ziparo, 2025. "Sweet Child of Mine: Parental Income, Child Health and Inequality," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(672), pages 2455-2482.
    4. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 82-127.
    5. Liam Wren-Lewis & Luis Becerra-Valbuena & Kenneth Houngbedji, 2020. "Formalizing land rights can reduce forest loss: Experimental evidence from Benin," Post-Print hal-02898187, HAL.
    6. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1994. "North-South Trade and the Global Environment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 851-874, September.
    7. Matias Heino & Matti Kummu & Marika Makkonen & Mark Mulligan & Peter H Verburg & Mika Jalava & Timo A Räsänen, 2015. "Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(10), pages 1-21, October.
    8. Jorge Hargrave & Krisztina Kis-Katos, 2013. "Economic Causes of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Panel Data Analysis for the 2000s," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(4), pages 471-494, April.
    9. Liam Wren-Lewis & Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Kenneth Houngbedji, 2020. "Formalizing land rights can reduce forest loss: Experimental evidence from Benin," Post-Print hal-02898187, HAL.
    10. Eric F. Lambin & Holly K. Gibbs & Robert Heilmayr & Kimberly M. Carlson & Leonardo C. Fleck & Rachael D. Garrett & Yann le Polain de Waroux & Constance L. McDermott & David McLaughlin & Peter Newton &, 2018. "The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 109-116, February.
    11. Lapierre, Margaux & Le Velly, Gwenolé & Bougherara, Douadia & Préget, Raphaële & Sauquet, Alexandre, 2023. "Designing agri-environmental schemes to cope with uncertainty," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    12. Elias Papaioannou, 2014. "National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 151-213.
    13. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    14. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    15. Obie Porteous, 2019. "High Trade Costs and Their Consequences: An Estimated Dynamic Model of African Agricultural Storage and Trade," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 327-366, October.
    16. Bowman, Maria S., 2016. "Impact of foot-and-mouth disease status on deforestation in Brazilian Amazon and cerrado municipalities between 2000 and 2010," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 25-40.
    17. Assunção, Juliano & Gandour, Clarissa & Rocha, Rudi, 2015. "Deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: prices or policies?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 697-722, December.
    18. Godar, Javier & Persson, U. Martin & Tizado, E. Jorge & Meyfroidt, Patrick, 2015. "Towards more accurate and policy relevant footprint analyses: Tracing fine-scale socio-environmental impacts of production to consumption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 25-35.
    19. J. C. Burgess, 1998. "Economic analysis of deforestation in Mexico," Chapters, in: The Economics of Environment and Development, chapter 10, pages 183-222, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. repec:wbk:wbpubs:34621 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Anna Bruederle & Roland Hodler, 2018. "Nighttime lights as a proxy for human development at the local level," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, September.
    22. Jeff Tollefson, 2020. "Why deforestation and extinctions make pandemics more likely," Nature, Nature, vol. 584(7820), pages 175-176, August.
    23. Fukase, Emiko & Martin, Will, 2020. "Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    24. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    25. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    26. Todd Sandler, 1993. "Tropical Deforestation: Markets and Market Failures," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 69(3), pages 225-233.
    27. Jonah Busch & Kalifi Ferretti-Gallon, 2017. "What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(1), pages 3-23.
    28. Susana Ferreira, 2004. "Deforestation, Property Rights, and International Trade," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(2), pages 174-193.
    29. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    30. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7720), pages 639-643, August.
    31. Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves & Jacob Fry & Arunima Malik & Arne Geschke & Maria Anice Mureb Sallum & Manfred Lenzen, 2020. "Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    32. Angelsen, Arild & Kaimowitz, David, 1999. "Rethinking the Causes of Deforestation: Lessons from Economic Models," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(1), pages 73-98, February.
    33. Margaux Lapierre & Gwenolé Le Velly & Douadia Bougherara & Raphaële Préget & Alexandre Sauquet, 2021. "Designing Agri-Environmental Schemes to cope with uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03349026, HAL.
    34. Pence Karen M., 2006. "The Role of Wealth Transformations: An Application to Estimating the Effect of Tax Incentives on Saving," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26.
    35. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    36. J. Vernon Henderson & Adam Storeygard & David N. Weil, 2012. "Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 994-1028, April.
    37. Ryan Abman & Clark Lundberg, 2020. "Does Free Trade Increase Deforestation? The Effects of Regional Trade Agreements," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 35-72.
    38. Benedict Probst & Ariel BenYishay & Andreas Kontoleon & Tiago N. P. Reis, 2020. "Impacts of a large-scale titling initiative on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1019-1026, December.
    39. Elsa M. Ordway & Rosamond L. Naylor & Raymond N. Nkongho & Eric F. Lambin, 2019. "Oil palm expansion and deforestation in Southwest Cameroon associated with proliferation of informal mills," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    40. Leblois, Antoine & Damette, Olivier & Wolfersberger, Julien, 2017. "What has Driven Deforestation in Developing Countries Since the 2000s? Evidence from New Remote-Sensing Data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 82-102.
    41. Wheeler, David & Hammer, Dan & Kraft, Robin & Dasgupta, Susmita & Blankespoor, Brian, 2013. "Economic dynamics and forest clearing: A spatial econometric analysis for Indonesia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 85-96.
    42. Angelsen, Arild, 1999. "Agricultural expansion and deforestation: modelling the impact of population, market forces and property rights," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 185-218, February.
    43. Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2019. "Deforestation in the Amazon: A Unified Framework for Estimation and Policy Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(6), pages 2713-2744.
    44. Xiao-Peng Song & Matthew C. Hansen & Stephen V. Stehman & Peter V. Potapov & Alexandra Tyukavina & Eric F. Vermote & John R. Townshend, 2018. "Author Correction: Global land change from 1982 to 2016," Nature, Nature, vol. 563(7732), pages 26-26, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zahonogo, Windbeneti Arnaud & Sawadogo, Relwendé, 2026. "Fuelling energy poverty? Evidence on the role of deforestation in developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    2. Valentin Guye, 2025. "Indirect Land use Change Mechanisms: Tests from Biofuel Mandates and Pantropical Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(12), pages 3329-3365, December.
    3. Sharma, Manoj & Villoria, Nelson, 2026. "Exports and Deforestation: A Commodity-Level Analysis," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404633, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Bertille Daran & Clément Nedoncelle, 2025. "The deforestation effect of climate aid [L'effet déforestation de l'aide climatique]," Working Papers hal-05310970, HAL.
    5. Digvijay S. Negi, 2024. "State Mediated Trade, Distortions and Air Pollution," Working Papers 129, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    6. Victoire Girard & Teresa Molina-Mill n & Guillaume Vic, 2022. "Artisanal mining in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2201, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    7. Berman, Nicolas & Couttenier, Mathieu & Leblois, Antoine & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2023. "Crop prices and deforestation in the tropics," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Frederik Noack & Dennis Engist & Josephine Gantois & Vasundhara Gaur & Batoule F Hyjazie & Ashley Larsen & Leithen M’gonigle & Anouch Missirian & Matin Qaim & Risa D Sargent & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues , 2024. "Environmental impacts of genetically modified crops [Impacts environnementaux des cultures OGM]," Post-Print hal-04787948, HAL.
    9. repec:unl:unlfep:wp2601 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aidt, Toke S. & Albornoz, Facundo & Hauk, Esther, 2024. "To cut or not to cut: Deforestation policy under the shadow of foreign influence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Hamilton, Stephen & Ouvrard, Benjamin, 2025. "Fair Pricing and Structural Excess Supply," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360647, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Léa Crepin & Clément Nedoncelle, 2024. "Foreign demand, soy exports, and deforestation," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 26, Stata Users Group.
    13. Ly, Alpha & Chakir, Raja & Creti, Anna, 2024. "Electrification or deforestation? Evidence from household practices in Côte d’Ivoire," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Ly, Alpha, 2025. "Financial globalization and tropical deforestation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    15. Gallemore, Caleb & Berecha, Gezahegn & Eneyew, Adugna & Grabs, Janina & Jespersen, Kristjan & Kasongi, N.’gwinamila & Mamuye, Melkamu & Maskell, Gina & Mathe, Annkathrin & Mwalutolo, Daniel & Niehues,, 2025. "Avoiding Access Inequity Due to classification errors in zero-deforestation value chains: Coffee and the European union deforestation regulation," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Victoire Girard & Edouard Pignede, 2026. "Artisanal mining and urbanization in Africa," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp678, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    17. Kassouri, Yacouba, 2024. "Fertilizer prices and deforestation in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Alan Leal & Maurício Bugarin, 2024. "There is Trouble with the Trees: How to Avoid Trade-Induced Deforestation?," TD NEREUS 5-2024, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bortolotti, Luca & Marson, Marta & Saccone, Donatella, 2024. "Food and the forest: A spatial analysis on the nexus between foreign direct investment and deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. Victoire Girard & Teresa Molina-Mill n & Guillaume Vic, 2022. "Artisanal mining in Africa," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2201, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    3. Clark Lundberg & Ryan Abman, 2022. "Maize price volatility and deforestation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 693-716, March.
    4. Sohag, Kazi & Gainetdinova, Anna & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Economic growth, institutional quality and deforestation: Evidence from Russia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Carreira, Igor & Costa, Francisco & Pessoa, João Paulo, 2024. "The deforestation effects of trade and agricultural productivity in Brazil," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    6. Sharma, Manoj & Villoria, Nelson, 2026. "Exports and Deforestation: A Commodity-Level Analysis," 2026 Annual Meeting, July 26 - 28, 2026, Kansas City, Missouri 404633, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. repec:osf:socarx:hy3np_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Combes, Jean-Louis & Delacote, Philippe & Combes Motel, Pascale & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2018. "Public spending, credit and natural capital: Does access to capital foster deforestation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 306-316.
    9. Mastrangelo, Joao Paulo S. & Gori Maia, Alexandre, 2021. "Impacts of land tenure security on deforestation: evidence for the Amazon rainforest," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313918, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Bård Harstad, 2020. "Trade and Trees: How Trade Agreements Can Motivate Conservation Instead of Depletion," CESifo Working Paper Series 8569, CESifo.
    11. Joseph, Iverson-Love, 2022. "The effect of natural disaster on economic growth: Evidence from a major earthquake in Haiti," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Weslem Rodrigues Faria & Admir Antônio Betarelli Júnior & Rosa Lívia Gonçalves Montenegro, 2019. "Multidimensional characteristics and deforestation: an analysis for the Brazilian Legal Amazon," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1959-1979, July.
    13. Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Almeida, Alexandre Nunes, 2016. "Relationship between openness to trade and deforestation: Empirical evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 85-97.
    14. Mastrangelo, Joao Paulo Santos & Gori Maia, Alexandre & Schons, Stella Zucchetti, 2026. "Does land tenure security reduce deforestation? Evidence from the Brazilian Amazon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Ferreira, Alipio, 2026. "Amazon deforestation: Drivers, damages, and policies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    16. Amarasinghe, Ashani & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Zenou, Yves, 2024. "Key players in economic development," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 40-56.
    17. Cisneros, Elías & Kis-Katos, Krisztina, 2024. "Unintended environmental consequences of anti-corruption strategies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    18. Dickinson, Jeffrey, 2020. "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles: What Drives Human-Made Light?," MPRA Paper 103504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Wu, Yu & Sills, Erin O., "undated". "The Evolving Relationship between Market Access and Deforestation on the Amazon Frontier," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274317, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    21. Amarasinghe, Ashani & Raschky, Paul A. & Zenou, Yves & Zhou, Junjie, 2026. "How natural disasters spread conflict," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q23 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Forestry
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpceem:hal-03352884. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Laurent Garnier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lamplfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.