Deforestation, land use, and malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon: A spatial analysis

This study analyzes the determinants of malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon, focusing on patterns of deforestation, agricultural mechanization, and their spatio-temporal dynamics. Using municipal-level panel data (2007–2020) and spatial econometric models, we identify two main findings: Deforestation increases malaria incidence in a non-linear fashion, with significant impacts lasting up to five years and a renewed peak nearly a decade later. Mechanization reduces transmission: A 1 % increase in heavy machinery (e.g., crawler tractors) is associated with a 0.67 % decrease in the incidence rate. A 1 % increase in light machinery (e.g., wheeled tractors) is associated with a 0.37 % decrease, attributable to intensified land use and habitat management. Policy implications may include targeted subsidies for light mechanization leasing in high-incidence municipalities. This strategy could simultaneously curb malaria and deforestation by leveraging degraded pasture areas as expansion zones for cultivation using light machinery, thus eliminating the need for forest invasion.