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The Return to Foreign Aid

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  • Carl-Johan Dalgaard

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Henrik Hansen

    (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

This paper investigates the marginal productivity of investment in the world’s poorest economies. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid as well as by domestic resource mobilization, using crosscountry aggregate data. In practice the return on both investment categories can be expected to vary considerably across countries and time. As a consequence we develop a correlated random coefficients approach to the issue at hand, which allows us to estimate the average aggregate rate of return on “aid investments” and “domestic investments”. Across a wide array of estimators our principal finding is remarkably robust; the average aggregate gross return on “aid investments” falls in a 20-30 percent range, roughly the same as the return on investments funded by other sources than aid. This finding is well in accord with micro estimates of the economic return to aid.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Henrik Hansen, 2005. "The Return to Foreign Aid," Discussion Papers 05-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0504
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    Cited by:

    1. Asongu, Simplice & Ezeaku, Hillary, 2020. "Aid Grants vs. Technical Cooperation Grants: Implications for Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1984-2018," MPRA Paper 107528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Berg, Andrew & Portillo, Rafael & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 116-129.
    3. Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Aid and Development," MPRA Paper 13171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Erickson, Lennart, 2009. "Reasonable Expectations and the First Millennium Development Goal: How Much Can Aid Achieve?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1170-1181, July.
    5. Lacina Balma & Daniel Gurara, 2019. "Working Paper 324 - Public Investment, Time-to-Build, and Fiscal Stimulus," Working Paper Series 2450, African Development Bank.
    6. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2011. "Aid Effectiveness: Opening the Black Box," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Mr. Christopher S Adam & Mr. Edward F Buffie, 2020. "The Minimum Wage Puzzle in Less Developed Countries: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2020/023, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Andrew Berg & Edward F. Buffie & Catherine Pattillo & Rafael Portillo & Andrea F. Presbitero & Luis‐Felipe Zanna, 2019. "Some Misconceptions About Public Investment Efficiency and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(342), pages 409-430, April.
    9. Salifou Issoufou & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Mouhamadou Bamba Diop & Kalidou Thiaw, 2014. "Efficient Energy Investment and Fiscal Adjustment in Senegal," IMF Working Papers 2014/044, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2008:i:14:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Araujo, Juliana D. & Li, Bin Grace & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2016. "Current account norms in natural resource rich and capital scarce economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 144-156.
    13. Bethencourt, Carlos & Perera-Tallo, Fernando, 2024. "The role of institutions in shaping the growth-aid relationship," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Muhammad Arshad & Sana Hameed Pasha & Naeem Akram & Nadia Hussain, 2023. "Estimating aggregate economic rate of return to foreign aid in Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Channing Arndt & Sam Jones & Finn Tarp, 2016. "What Is the Aggregate Economic Rate of Return to Foreign Aid?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 30(3), pages 446-474.
    16. Haldar, Anasuya & Sethi, Narayan, 2022. "Effect of sectoral foreign aid allocation on growth and structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa—Analysing the roles of institutional quality and human capital," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1010-1026.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Kyrgyz Republic: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by t," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/186, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Agenor, P.-R., 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and the Macroeconomic Dynamics of Small Indebted Economies," Princeton Studies in International Economics 82, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    19. BAYALE, Nimonka, 2018. "Quel volume d’aide internationale pour la croissance dans l’UEMOA ? [What amount of foreign aid for economic growth in WAEMU?]," MPRA Paper 88886, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Sep 2018.
    20. Mr. Giovanni Melina & Yi Xiong, 2013. "Natural Gas, Public Investment and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 2013/261, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mr. Edward F Buffie & Michele Andreolli & Ms. Grace B Li & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2016. "Macroeconomic Dimensions of Public-Private Partnerships," IMF Working Papers 2016/078, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    productivity; foreign aid; random coefficients; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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