IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp17213.html

Trading Places: Mobility Responses of Native and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Autor, David

    (MIT)

  • Dorn, David

    (University of Zurich)

  • Hanson, Gordon H.

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Previous research finds that the greater geographic mobility of foreign than native-born workers facilitates labor market adjustment to shifting regional economic conditions. We examine immigration's role in enabling U.S. commuting zones to respond to manufacturing job loss caused by import competition from China. Although foreign-born population headcounts fell by a larger proportion than those of the native-born in trade-exposed regions, the contribution of immigration to labor market adjustment in this episode was small. Because most U.S. immigrants arrived in the country after manufacturing regions were already mature, few took jobs in industries that later saw import surges. The foreign-born population share in regions with high trade exposure was only three-fifths that in regions with low exposure. Immigration may do more to aid adjustment to cyclical shocks, in which job loss follows recent hiring booms, than to aid adjustment to secular decline, in which hiring booms occurred longer ago.

Suggested Citation

  • Autor, David & Dorn, David & Hanson, Gordon H., 2024. "Trading Places: Mobility Responses of Native and Foreign-Born Adults to the China Trade Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 17213, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17213
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp17213.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loren Brandt & Trevor Tombe & Xiadong Zhu, 2013. "Factor Market Distortions Across Time, Space, and Sectors in China," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58, January.
    2. Dan Black & Terra McKinnish & Seth Sanders, 2005. "The Economic Impact Of The Coal Boom And Bust," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 449-476, April.
    3. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    4. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    5. Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis, 2022. "The Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized Lottery," NBER Working Papers 30589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2005. "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(2), pages 729-761.
    7. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants, Productivity, and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 3-30, Fall.
    8. Gordon Hanson & Chen Liu & Craig McIntosh, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Low-Skilled Immigration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 83-168.
    9. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 14, pages 431-484, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Edward L. Glaeser & Kristina Tobio, 2008. "The Rise of the Sunbelt," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 609-643, January.
    11. Edward L. Glaeser & Kristina Tobio, 2008. "The Rise of the Sunbelt," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 610-643, January.
    12. Patrick Coate & Kyle Mangum, 2019. "Fast Locations and Slowing Labor Mobility," Working Papers 19-49, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    14. Joan Monras, 2020. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3017-3089.
    15. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    16. Dell Champlin & Eric Hake, 2006. "Immigration as industrial strategy in American meatpacking," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-70.
    17. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan, 2017. "Immigration in American Economic History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1311-1345, December.
    18. Rodrigo Ad~ao & Michal Koles'ar & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," Papers 1806.07928, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.
    19. Gordon Hanson & Pia Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2023. "US Immigration from Latin America in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-222, Winter.
    20. Giovanni Peri, 2016. "The Effect Of Immigration On Productivity: Evidence From U.S. States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 8, pages 265-275, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. William R. Kerr & William F. Lincoln, 2010. "The Supply Side of Innovation: H-1B Visa Reforms and U.S. Ethnic Invention," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 473-508, July.
    22. George J. Borjas & Richard B. Freeman & Lawrence F. Katz, 2021. "How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 8, pages 163-234, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2016. "The Economics of Temporary Migrations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(1), pages 98-136, March.
    24. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    25. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    26. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    27. Ben Sprung-Keyser & Nathaniel Hendren & Sonya Porter, 2022. "The Radius of Economic Opportunity: Evidence from Migration and Local Labor Markets," Working Papers 22-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    28. Brian C. Cadena & Brian K. Kovak, 2016. "Immigrants Equilibrate Local Labor Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 257-290, January.
    29. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    30. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 111-143, June.
    31. Greenland, Andrew & Lopresti, John, 2016. "Import exposure and human capital adjustment: Evidence from the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 50-60.
    32. Woodruff, Christopher & Zenteno, Rene, 2007. "Migration networks and microenterprises in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 509-528, March.
    33. Jennifer Hunt & Marjolaine Gauthier-Loiselle, 2010. "How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 31-56, April.
    34. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and Mortality: Evidence from US Counties," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 47-64, March.
    35. Rodrigo Ad'o & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esp'sito, 2019. "Spatial Linkages, Global Shocks, and Local Labor Markets: Theory and Evidence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    36. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Mariel Schwartz, 2019. "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 307-372.
    37. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "What Explains the 2007–2009 Drop in Employment?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2197-2223, November.
    38. Mike Zabek, 2024. "Local Ties in Spatial Equilibrium," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 287-317, April.
    39. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    40. Kaivan Munshi, 2003. "Networks in the Modern Economy: Mexican Migrants in the U. S. Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 549-599.
    41. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    42. Simone Bertoli & J. Fernandes-Huertas Moraga, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Post-Print halshs-00820169, HAL.
    43. Brandt, Loren & Morrow, Peter M., 2017. "Tariffs and the organization of trade in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 85-103.
    44. Christoph Albert & Joan Monras, 2022. "Immigration and Spatial Equilibrium: The Role of Expenditures in the Country of Origin," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3763-3802, November.
    45. Bai, Xue & Krishna, Kala & Ma, Hong, 2017. "How you export matters: Export mode, learning and productivity in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 122-137.
    46. Nathaniel Baum-Snow, 2007. "Did Highways Cause Suburbanization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 775-805.
    47. Eric T. Stuen & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Keith E. Maskus, 2012. "Skilled Immigration and Innovation: Evidence from Enrolment Fluctuations in US Doctoral Programmes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1143-1176, December.
    48. Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2019. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 1949-2010.
    49. Barry Naughton, 2007. "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262640643, December.
    50. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2169-2195, October.
    51. Christoph Albert & Joan Monràs, 2019. "The regional impact of economic shocks: Why immigration is different from import competition," Economics Working Papers 1758, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2020.
    52. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Ethnicity, Neighborhoods, and Human-Capital Externalities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 7, pages 135-160, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    53. Bound, John & Holzer, Harry J, 2000. "Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1980s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(1), pages 20-54, January.
    54. Andrew Greenland & John Lopresti & Peter McHenry, 2019. "Import Competition and Internal Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 44-59, March.
    55. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    56. Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2020. "The Incidence of Local Labor Demand Shocks," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(3), pages 687-725.
    57. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2019. "The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 7373, July.
    58. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Furtado, Delia & Kong, Haiyang, 2024. "How do low-education immigrants adjust to Chinese import shocks? Evidence using English language proficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Giulia Bettin & Silvia Mattiozzi, 2025. "These jobs are going, and they ain't coming back: internal mobility in response to manufacturing decline," Working Papers 501, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    4. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2024. "Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Masahiro ENDOH & Toshiyuki MATSUURA & Akira SASAHARA, 2025. "The Effect of Import Shocks on Internal Migration in Japan," Discussion papers 25108, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Maggie R. Jones & Bradley Setzler, 2024. "Places versus People: The Ins and Outs of Labor Market Adjustment to Globalization," Working Papers 24-78, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    3. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Furtado, Delia & Kong, Haiyang, 2024. "How do low-education immigrants adjust to Chinese import shocks? Evidence using English language proficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    5. Gordon H. Hanson & Enrico Moretti, 2025. "Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone? Changes in the Geography of Work in the US, 1980-2021," NBER Working Papers 33631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Miriam Fritzsche, 2024. "De-industrialization, local joblessness and the male-female employment gap," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0040, Berlin School of Economics.
    7. Sheida Teimouri & Joachim Zietz, 2025. "Housing prices and import competition," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 253-280, January.
    8. Yu, Chan, 2023. "The role of immigrants in the United States labor market and Chinese import competition," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2025. "The decline of manufacturing employment and the rise of the far-right in Austria," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    10. Andrea Foschi & Christopher L. House & Christian Proebsting & Linda L. Tesar, 2025. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 56(1 (Spring), pages 67-137.
    11. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    12. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.
    13. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Galle, Simon & Lorentzen, Linnea, 2024. "The unequal effects of trade and automation across local labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    16. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2023. "Migration, tariffs, and China's export surge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    17. Karim Bekhtiar, 2025. "Robotization, internal migration and rural decline," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 1-31, September.
    18. Gray, Rowena & Wright, Greg C., 2024. "A rising tide? The local incidence of the second wave of globalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Matthieu Crozet & Laura Hering & Sandra Poncet, 2024. "Is There a Bright Side to the China Syndrome? Rising Export Opportunities and Life Satisfaction in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 38(4), pages 708-740.
    20. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17213. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.