IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp14848.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Labour Mobility with Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Chand, Satish

    (University of New South Wales)

  • Clemens, Michael A.

    (George Mason University)

Abstract

How many immigrants with less than university education, for a given immigration quota, maximise economic output? The answer is zero in the canonical model of the labour market, where the marginal product of a university-educated immigrant is always higher. We build an alternative model in which national production occurs through a set of Leontief producation functions that shift over time with technological change. This model is used to estimate that the Australian economy growing at historical rates through the year 2050 will demand approximately two million migrant TVET workers, many of which could be supplied from the Pacific Islands.

Suggested Citation

  • Chand, Satish & Clemens, Michael A., 2021. "Labour Mobility with Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 14848, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14848
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp14848.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    3. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    4. David Stern, 2011. "Elasticities of substitution and complementarity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 79-89, August.
    5. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    6. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    8. Gaetano Basso & Giovanni Peri & Ahmed S. Rahman, 2020. "Computerization and immigration: Theory and evidence from the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1457-1494, November.
    9. Jan Tinbergen, 1974. "Substitution Of Graduate By Other Labour," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 217-226, January.
    10. Daniel Crown & Alessandra Faggian & Jonathan Corcoran, 2020. "High skilled immigration and the occupational choices of native workers: the case of Australia," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 585-605.
    11. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4t83lre9hm91sq006n4940n19s is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Robert Breunig & Nathan Deutscher & Hang Thi To, 2017. "The Relationship between Immigration to Australia and the Labour Market Outcomes of Australian-Born Workers," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(301), pages 255-276, June.
    14. Charles I. Jones, 2005. "The Shape of Production Functions and the Direction of Technical Change," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 517-549.
    15. Frieling, Julius & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Estimation of Substitution Elasticities in Three-Factor Production Functions: Identifying the Role of Energy," FCN Working Papers 1/2016, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN), revised Sep 2016.
    16. Patricia Cortés & Jessica Pan, 2013. "Outsourcing Household Production: Foreign Domestic Workers and Native Labor Supply in Hong Kong," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 327-371.
    17. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Tamura, Robert, 2020. "Aggregate Elasticity of Substitution between Skills: Estimates from a Macroeconomic Approach," MPRA Paper 100768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    19. Michael Coelli & Jeff Borland, 2016. "Job Polarisation and Earnings Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 1-27, March.
    20. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    21. Mette Foged & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigrants' Effect on Native Workers: New Analysis on Longitudinal Data," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-34, April.
    22. Nicholas Gailey & Wolfgang Lutz, 2018. "Summary of ‘Demographic and human capital scenarios for the 21st century: 2018 assessment for 201 countries’," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 16(1), pages 221-234.
    23. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    24. Guy Debelle, 1998. "Introduction to Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    25. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2016. "Task Specialization, Immigration, and Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: The Economics of International Migration, chapter 3, pages 81-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    26. Tinbergen, Jan, 1974. "Substitution of Graduate by Other Labour," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 217-226.
    27. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    28. John Freebairn, 1998. "Microeconomics of the Australian Labour Market," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    29. Chand, Satish & Clemens, Michael A. & Dempster, Helen, 2021. "A Pacific Skills Visa: Improving Opportunities for Skilled Migration throughout the Pacific Region," IZA Policy Papers 183, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    30. Wojciech Hardy & Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2018. "Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(2), pages 201-231, April.
    31. Anderson, R. K. & Moroney, J. R., 1993. "Morishima elasticities of substitution with nested production functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(2-3), pages 159-166.
    32. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2016. "The Impact of Immigration: Why Do Studies Reach Such Different Results?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 31-56, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sevinç, Orhun, 2017. "Skill-biased technical change and Labor market polarization:the role of skill heterogeneity within occupations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Anderton, Robert & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Morgan, Julian & Petroulakis, Filippos & Vivian, Lara, 2020. "Virtually everywhere? Digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies," Occasional Paper Series 244, European Central Bank.
    3. Gaetano Basso, 2020. "The Evolution of the Occupational Structure in Italy, 2007–2017," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 673-704, November.
    4. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    5. Wan-Jung Cheng, 2017. "Explaining Job Polarization: The Role of Heterogeneity in Capital Intensity," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 17-A015, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, revised Feb 2018.
    6. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Siegel, Christian, 2020. "Biased technological change and employment reallocation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    8. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2021. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," CESifo Working Paper Series 9444, CESifo.
    9. Clément Bosquet & Paul Maarek & Elliot Moiteaux, 2021. "Routine-biased technological change and wages by education level: Occupational downgrading and displacement effects," Working Papers hal-03270715, HAL.
    10. Zsofia Barany & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Engines of sectoral labor productivity growth," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 304-343, January.
    11. Sara Amoroso & Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello, 2018. "Inward Greenfield FDI and Patterns of Job Polarization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Maarek, Paul & Moiteaux, Elliot, 2021. "Polarization, employment and the minimum wage: Evidence from European local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Lee, Tim & Shin, Yongseok, 2017. "Horizonatal and Vertical Polarization: Task-Specific Technological Change in a Multi-Sector Economy," TSE Working Papers 17-800, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Fierro, Luca Eduardo & Caiani, Alessandro & Russo, Alberto, 2022. "Automation, Job Polarisation, and Structural Change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 499-535.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7vl4otetog8c6aaomlbfjid6fp is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2018. "Job Polarization and Structural Change," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 57-89, January.
    17. Zsófia L. Bárány & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Engines of Sectoral Labor Productivity Growth," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03493705, HAL.
    18. Hunt, Jennifer & Nunn, Ryan, 2022. "Has U.S. employment really polarized? A critical reappraisal," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Lucas van der Velde, 2020. "Within Occupation Wage Dispersion and the Task Content of Jobs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(5), pages 1161-1197, October.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/30j1vvprab87kpl0hore4b2sv1 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Náplava Radek, 2019. "Changing structure of Employment in Europe: Polarization Issue," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 307-318, December.
    22. Terhi Maczulskij, 2019. "Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers," Working Papers 327, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; labor; low skill; TVET; training; human capital; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14848. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.