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The Evolution of the Occupational Structure in Italy, 2007–2017

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  • Gaetano Basso

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Many advanced economies have experienced significant job polarization in the last decades, with an increase in the employment share and relative wage of both low-wage and high-wage workers at the expense of middle-wage workers. This polarization has probably been spurred by the substitution of routine-intensive labour with automation and information and communication technologies. This paper explores whether the Italian labour market has experienced similar patterns and, if so, whether they are the consequence of a pure technology-driven shock. The evidence is mixed. While the share of low-wage manual occupations has increased markedly, that of high-wage professional occupations has fallen slightly. The share of middle-wage jobs has declined significantly but, unlike the case of the US, the wages have not. Regression analyses based on occupational task characteristics (Goos et al. in Am Econ Rev 104(8): 2509–2526, 2014) do not fully align with the routine-biased technical change hypothesis either, consistently with the limited adoption of automation technology in Italy. Among the most likely factors, cross-sector reallocation, which favoured the low value added service sector, and the rise of low skilled migrant and college graduate labour supply explain most of the observed occupational changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaetano Basso, 2020. "The Evolution of the Occupational Structure in Italy, 2007–2017," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 673-704, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:soinre:v:152:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-020-02460-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11205-020-02460-2
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    2. Carbonero, Francesco & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Labour and technology at the time of Covid-19. Can artificial intelligence mitigate the need for proximity?," GLO Discussion Paper Series 765, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour demand; Occupational choice;

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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