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International Trade and Job Polarization: Evidence at the Worker-Level

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  • Keller, Wolfgang
  • Utar, Hale

Abstract

This paper examines the role of international trade for job polarization, the phenomenon in which employment for high- and low-wage occupations increases but mid-wage occupations decline. With employer-employee matched data on virtually all workers and firms in Denmark between 1999 and 2009, we use instrumental-variables techniques and a quasi-natural experiment to show that import competition is a major cause of job polarization. Import competition with China accounts for about 17% of the aggregate decline in mid-wage employment. Many mid-skill workers are pushed into low-wage service jobs while others move into high-wage jobs. The direction of movement, up or down, turns on the skill focus of workers' education. Workers with vocational training for a service occupation can avoid moving into low-wage service jobs, and among them workers with information-technology education are far more likely to move into high-wage jobs than other workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2016. "International Trade and Job Polarization: Evidence at the Worker-Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 11311, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11311
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:pia:review:v:9:y:2018:i:1:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Fischer, Andreas M & Saure, Philip, 2018. "Identifying Chinese Supply Shocks - Effects of Trade on Labor Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 13122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. James Harrigan & Ariell Reshef & Farid Toubal, 2016. "The March of the Techies: Technology, Trade, and Job Polarization in France, 1994-2007," Working Papers 2016-15, CEPII research center.
    4. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    5. repec:nse:ecosta:ecostat_2017_497-498_7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Andrea Salvatori, 2018. "The anatomy of job polarisation in the UK," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 52(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Jacob Rubak Holm & Bram Timmermans & Christian Richter Ostergaard, 2017. "The impact of multinational R&D spending firms on job polarization and mobility," JRC Working Papers JRC108560, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    8. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2018. "Globalization, Gender, and the Family," CEPR Discussion Papers 13317, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Pekkala Kerr, Sari & Maczulskij, Terhi & Maliranta, Mika, 2016. "Within and Between Firm Trends in Job Polarization: Role of Globalization and Technology," ETLA Working Papers 41, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    10. Nicola Grassano & Alexander Coad & Jacob Holm & Christian Ostergaard & Bram Timmermans & Antonio Vezzani, 2018. "R&D Intensive Corporations and the Job Market: The Danish Case," JRC Working Papers JRC112709, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    11. repec:eee:eecrev:v:111:y:2019:i:c:p:305-335 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:eecrev:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:305-333 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    import competition; inequality; occupational change; vocational education;

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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