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Technology, offshoring and the rise of non-routine jobs

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  • Reijnders, Laurie S.M.
  • de Vries, Gaaitzen J.

Abstract

This paper documents the growing share of non-routine jobs in the labor force of thirty-seven advanced and emerging countries over the period 1999–2007. To examine the role of offshoring and technological change in driving this labor market development, we develop a task-based model of production in global value chains and propose a decomposition of changes in occupational labor demand. In the setup of the model, technological change affects the total number of workers with a certain occupation throughout the production chain, while task relocation consists of a shift in occupational labor demand from one location to another. For the empirical implementation we combine harmonized cross-country occupations data with world input-output tables. The results of our decomposition suggest that technological change increased the number of non-routine relative to routine occupations in all countries. The effect of task relocation is less strong, and works in the same direction for advanced countries such as Germany and the United States but in the opposite direction for emerging countries such as China and Poland.

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  • Reijnders, Laurie S.M. & de Vries, Gaaitzen J., 2018. "Technology, offshoring and the rise of non-routine jobs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 412-432.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:135:y:2018:i:c:p:412-432
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.08.009
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    1. Guido Matias Cortes & Diego M. Morris, 2019. "Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the U.S. and Mexico," Working Paper series 19-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. de Vries, Gaaitzen J. & Gentile, Elisabetta & Miroudot, Sébastien & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2020. "The rise of robots and the fall of routine jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Sabina Szymczak & Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2019. "Position In Global Value Chains:The Impact On Wages In Central And Eastern European Countries," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 53, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology, revised Dec 2019.
    4. Krenz, Astrid & Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Robots, reshoring, and the lot of low-skilled workers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2020. "Do Global Value Chains Enhance Economic Upgrading? A Long View," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(9), pages 1683-1705, July.
    6. Gomez, M, 2021. "Job Polarization and the Informal Labor Market," Documentos de trabajo - Alianza EFI 019418, Alianza EFI.
    7. Peter J. Buckley & Roger Strange & Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2020. "Catching-up in the global factory: Analysis and policy implications," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(2), pages 79-106, June.
    8. Shen, Chunmiao & Zheng, Jianghuai, 2020. "Does global value chains participation really promote skill-biased technological change? Theory and evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 10-18.
    9. Piotr Lewandowski & Albert Park & Wojciech Hardy & Du Yang, 2019. "Technology, Skills, and Globalization: Explaining International Differences in Routine and Nonroutine Work Using Survey Data," IBS Working Papers 04/2019, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    10. Arief A. Yusuf & Reza Anglingkusumo & Andy Sumner & Putri R. Halim & Anggita C.M. Kusuma, 2020. "Routinization And The Changing Task Composition In The Labor Market: Evidence From Indonesia," Working Papers WP/06/2020, Bank Indonesia.
    11. Guido Matias Cortes1 & Diego M. Morris, 2020. "Are routine jobs moving south? Evidence from changes in the occupational structure of employment in the USA and Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global value chains; Trade; Technology; Tasks; Occupations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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