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Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall

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  • Anders Aslund

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Emerging-market growth from 2000 to 2012 was extraordinarily high. Aslund cites several factors to explain why emerging-economy growth is likely to be lower in the future. Having caught up with advanced economies in many respects, these countries face limitations on their future catch-up potential. The extraordinary credit and commodity booms are over, and many large emerging economies are financially fragile. They have governance problems and need to carry out structural reforms. The advanced economies, by contrast, have undertaken fiscal consolidation and structural reforms following the recent financial crisis and should experience higher growth rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Aslund, 2013. "Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall," Working Paper Series WP13-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp13-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Ghada Fayad & Mr. Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2014/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    3. Duttagupta, Rupa & Narita, Futoshi, 2017. "Emerging and developing economies: Entering a rough patch or protracted low gear?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 680-698.
    4. Almansour, Aseel & Aslam, Aqib & Bluedorn, John & Duttagupta, Rupa, 2015. "How vulnerable are emerging markets to external shocks?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 460-483.
    5. Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
    6. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    7. Harinder S. Kohli (ed.), 2016. "The World in 2050: Striving for a More Just, Prosperous, and Harmonious Global Community," Books, Emerging Markets Forum, edition 1, number world2050, Summer.
    8. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; slowdown; middle income trap; energy; financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N00 - Economic History - - General - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

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