IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iie/pbrief/pb12-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hyperinflations Are Rare, but a Breakup of the Euro Area Could Prompt One

Author

Listed:
  • Anders Aslund

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Hyperinflation—usually 1,000 percent or more a year—occurs only under very special circumstances: in a disorderly breakup of a currency zone; after wars or revolutions, when monetary or fiscal authorities lack control; and when wild populism prevails. Åslund reviews the historical record and shows that hyperinflation does not arise by mistake but because of major dysfunction or mismanagement. Responsible countries with reasonable governance may default, but they do not have hyperinflation. The danger of hyperinflation, therefore, is an irrelevant concern for ordinary monetary policy. However, the fact that collapse of a large currency union with substantial imbalances usually causes hyperinflation raises concerns for the euro area. Large uncleared payments balances have accumulated between the member countries as the private interbank market has stopped functioning. On the one hand, the uncleared balances have grown massively and, on the other, the creditor countries demand that balances be capped, which would mean disruption of the currency zone. It is critical to prevent a disorderly collapse of the euro area at almost any price, and the most obvious measure is vigorous monetary expansion, even more so than at present. There is no historical evidence of monetary easing or even quantitative easing leading to hyperinflation. The second measure should be more rigorous fiscal austerity in the troubled countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Anders Aslund, 2012. "Hyperinflations Are Rare, but a Breakup of the Euro Area Could Prompt One," Policy Briefs PB12-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb12-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/hyperinflations-are-rare-breakup-euro-area-could-prompt-one
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    2. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number dorn91-1, October.
    3. Paulo Rabello de Castro & Marcio Ronci, 1991. "Sixty Years of Populism in Brazil," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 151-173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. ., 2012. "Exchange Rate Manipulation in International Economic Law," Chapters, in: International Economic Law and Monetary Measures, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mau, Vladimir & Starodubrovskaia, Irina, 2001. "The Challenge of Revolution: Contemporary Russia in Historical Perspective," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199241507, Decembrie.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1992. "Monetary problems of post-communism: Lessons from the end of the Austro-Hungarian empire," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 391-424, September.
    8. Rudiger Dornbusch & Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Introduction to "The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America"," NBER Chapters, in: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2010. "The Winter of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks the Market," Policy Briefs PB10-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    2. Christopher Ball & Andreas Freytag & Miriam Kautz, 2019. "Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7914, CESifo.
    3. Carlos A Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 526-568, November.
    4. Anders Aslund, 2013. "Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall," Working Paper Series WP13-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Manuel Ramos -Francia & Ana María Aguilar-Argaez & Santiago García-Verdú & Gabriel Cuadra-García, 2013. "Heading into Trouble: A Comparison of the Latin American Crises and the Euro Area’s Current Crisis," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 87-165, January-j.
    6. Sebastian Edwards, 2019. "On Latin American Populism, and Its Echoes around the World," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 76-99, Fall.
    7. repec:rnp:ecopol:ep1413 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ntentas, Raphael, 2021. "Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Seghezza, Elena & Pittaluga, Giovanni B., 2018. "Resource rents and populism in resource-dependent economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 83-88.
    10. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    11. Mejia, Daniel & Posada, Carlos-Esteban, 2007. "Populist policies in the transition to democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 932-953, December.
    12. Matevž (Matt) Rašković & Katalin Takacs Haynes & Anastas Vangeli, 2024. "The emergence of populism as an institution and its recursive mechanisms: A socio-cognitive theory perspective," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 19-40, March.
    13. Pablo García S. & Camilo Pérez N., 2017. "Desigualdad, inflación, ciclos y crisis en Chile," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 44(2 Year 20), pages 185-221, December.
    14. Giovanni Andrea Cornia, 2012. "The New Structuralist Macroeconomics and Income Inequality," Working Papers - Economics wp2012_25.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    15. Emilio Ocampo, 2020. "What Kind of Populism is Peronism?," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 732, Universidad del CEMA.
    16. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/8070 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gilles Saint‐Paul & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2021. "Engineering crises: Favoritism and strategic fiscal indiscipline," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 583-610, November.
    18. Emilio Ocampo, 2021. "A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 787, Universidad del CEMA.
    19. Anand, Kartik & Gai, Prasanna & König, Philipp Johann, 2020. "Leaping into the dark: A theory of policy gambles," Discussion Papers 07/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    21. Daniel J. Blake & Stanislav Markus & Julio Martinez‐Suarez, 2024. "Populist Syndrome and Nonmarket Strategy," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 525-560, March.
    22. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Federico Faveretto & Donato Masciandaro, 2018. "Financial Inequality, group entitlements and populism," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1892, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb12-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peterson Institute webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iieeeus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.