IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/remfce/66.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Hazama, Makoto
  • Uesugi, Iichiro

Abstract

Using a unique and massive data set that contains information on interfirm transaction relationships, this study examines default propagation in trade credit networks and provides direct and systematic evidence of the existence and relevance of such default propagation. Not only do we implement simulations in order to detect prospective defaulters, we also estimate the probabilities of actual firm bankruptcies and compare the predicted defaults and actual defaults. We find, first, that an economically sizable number of firms are predicted to fail when their customers default on their trade debt. Second, these prospective defaulters are indeed more likely to go bankrupt than other firms. Third, firms that have abundant external sources of financing or whose transaction partners have such abundant sources are less likely to go bankrupt even when they are predicted to default. This provides evidence for the existence and relevance of firms – called “deep pockets” by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) – that can act as shock absorbers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hazama, Makoto & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2017. "Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 66, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:remfce:66
    Note: (Forthcoming in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/28392/wp066.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    2. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Laeven, Luc & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2006. "The determinants of financing obstacles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 932-952, October.
    3. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    4. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
    5. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1997. "Credit Chains," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 118, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    6. Claudio Raddatz, 2010. "Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 985-1003, November.
    7. Peter Thompson & Melanie Fox-Kean, 2005. "Patent Citations and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers: A Reassessment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 465-466, March.
    8. Peter Thompson & Melanie Fox-Kean, 2005. "Patent Citations and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers: A Reassessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 450-460, March.
    9. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2007. "Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2061-2084, June.
    10. Nakajima, Kentaro & Saito, Yukiko Umeno & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2012. "The Localization of Interfirm Transaction Relationships and Industry Agglomeration," Working Paper Series 17, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    12. Hirofumi Uchida & Arito Ono & Souichirou Kozuka & Makoto Hazama & Iichiro Uesugi, 2015. "Interfirm Relationships and Trade Credit in Japan," SpringerBriefs in Economics, Springer, edition 127, number 978-4-431-55187-4, August.
    13. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2007. "Network models and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 2033-2060, June.
    14. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. "Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-128, February.
    15. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    16. Douglas M. Gale & Shachar Kariv, 2007. "Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 99-103, May.
    17. Kentaro Nakajima & Yukiko Saito & Iichiro Uesugi, 2012. "The Localization of Interfirm Transaction Relationships," ERSA conference papers ersa12p503, European Regional Science Association.
    18. Frederic Boissay & Reint Gropp, 2013. "Payment Defaults and Interfirm Liquidity Provision," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(6), pages 1853-1894.
    19. Hirofumi Uchida & Arito Ono & Souichirou Kozuka & Makoto Hazama & Iichiro Uesugi, 2015. "Interfirm Relationships and Trade Credit in Japan: Evidence from Micro-Data," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Interfirm Relationships and Trade Credit in Japan, edition 127, pages 1-80, Springer.
    20. Shea, John S, 2002. "Complementarities and Comovements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 412-433, May.
    21. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    22. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    23. Tor Jacobson & Erik Schedvin, 2015. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(4), pages 1315-1371, July.
    24. Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 573, European Central Bank.
    25. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
    26. Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin, Erik, 2012. "Trade Credit and the Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical Analysis," Working Paper Series 263, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dungey, Mardi & Flavin, Thomas & O'Connor, Thomas & Wosser, Michael, 2022. "Non-financial corporations and systemic risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Yaya Su & Zhehao Huang & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Industry Heterogeneity and Systemic Risk—Based on a High Dimensional Network Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-15, November.
    3. FUJIWARA Yoshi & TERAI Masaaki & FUJITA Yuji & SOUMA Wataru, 2016. "DebtRank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan," Discussion papers 16046, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Altinoglu, Levent, 2021. "The origins of aggregate fluctuations in a credit network economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 316-334.
    2. Ogura, Yoshiaki & Okui, Ryo & Saito, Yukiko Umeno, 2015. "Network-Motivated Lending Decisions," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 29, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
    4. C. Gouriéroux & J.‐C. Héam & A. Monfort, 2012. "Bilateral exposures and systemic solvency risk," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1273-1309, November.
    5. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Brinley Codd, Adam & Hill, John, 2017. "The decline of solvency contagion risk," Bank of England working papers 662, Bank of England.
    6. Bardoscia, Marco & Barucca, Paolo & Codd, Adam Brinley & Hill, John, 2019. "Forward-looking solvency contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    7. Gerardo Ferrara & Sam Langfield & Zijun Liu & Tomohiro Ota, 2019. "Systemic illiquidity in the interbank network," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1779-1795, November.
    8. Sachapon Tungsong & Fabio Caccioli & Tomaso Aste, 2017. "Relation between regional uncertainty spillovers in the global banking system," Papers 1702.05944, arXiv.org.
    9. Fabio Caccioli & Paolo Barucca & Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2018. "Network models of financial systemic risk: a review," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 81-114, January.
    10. Dennis Bams & Magdalena Pisa & Christian C. P. Wolff, 2021. "Spillovers to small business credit risk," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 323-352, June.
    11. Riccardo Doyle, 2020. "Using Network Interbank Contagion in Bank Default Prediction," Papers 2005.12619, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    12. in 't Veld, Daan & van der Leij, Marco & Hommes, Cars, 2020. "The formation of a core-periphery structure in heterogeneous financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    13. Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2021. "Quantifying the importance of different contagion channels as sources of systemic risk," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 103-131, January.
    14. Ali Kabiri & Vlad Malone & Isabelle Roland & Mariana Spatareanu, 2020. "Bank default risk propagation along supply chains: evidence from the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp1699, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Spiros Bougheas & Alan Kirman, 2015. "Complex Financial Networks and Systemic Risk: A Review," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Pasquale Commendatore & Saime Kayam & Ingrid Kubin (ed.), Complexity and Geographical Economics, edition 127, pages 115-139, Springer.
    16. Lopomo Beteto Wegner, Danilo, 2020. "Liquidity policies and financial fragility," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-153.
    17. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    18. Muhammad Mohsin Hakeem & Ken-ichi Suzuki, 2016. "Fragility and contagion within European Union's banking system: the network prospective," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 115-131.
    19. Christoph Siebenbrunner, 2017. "Clearing algorithms and network centrality," Papers 1706.00284, arXiv.org.
    20. in ’t Veld, Daan & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2014. "Finding the core: Network structure in interbank markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 27-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interfirm networks; trade credit; default propagation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:remfce:66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehitjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.