Measuring the Systemic Risk in Interfirm Transaction Networks
Using a unique and massive data set that contains information on interfirm transaction relationships, we examine default propagation along the trade credit channel and for the first time provide direct and systematic evidence of its existence and relevance. Not only do we implement simulations in order to detect prospective defaulters, we also estimate the probabilities of actual firm bankruptcies and compare the predicted defaults and actual defaults. We find, first, that an economically sizable number of firms are predicted to fail when their customers default on their trade debt. Second, these prospective defaulters are indeed more likely to go bankrupt than other firms. Third, a certain type of firm-bank relationships, in which a bank extends loans to many of the firms in the same supply chain, significantly reduces firms' bankruptcy probability, providing evidence for the existence and relevance of ”deep pockets” as documented in Kiyotaki and Moore (1997).
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/ifn/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Peter Thompson & Melanie Fox-Kean, 2005.
"Patent Citations and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers: A Reassessment,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 450-460, March.
- Peter Thompson & Melanie Fox Kean, 2004. "Patent Citations and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers: A Reassessment," Working Papers 0401, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- NAKAJIMA Kentaro & SAITO Yukiko Umeno & UESUGI Iichiro, 2012. "Localization of Interfirm Transaction Relationships and Industry Agglomeration," Discussion papers 12023, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Peter Thompson & Melanie Fox-Kean, 2005. "Patent Citations and the Geography of Knowledge Spillovers: A Reassessment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 465-466, March.
- Claudio Raddatz, 2010.
"Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 985-1003, November.
- Raddatz, Claudio, 2008. "Credit chains and sectoral comovemen t: does the use of trade credit amplify sectoral shocks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4525, The World Bank.
- Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
- Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
- Boissay, Frédéric, 2006. "Credit chains and the propagation of financial distress," Working Paper Series 0573, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:cinwps:20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.