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Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates

Author

Listed:
  • Alexius, Annika

    (Department of Economics)

  • Post, Erik

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

We show that empirical results concerning the behavior of floating exchange rates differ between otherwise identical cointegrated and non-cointegrated VAR models. In particular, virtually all ten-year movements in nominal exchange rates are due to fundamental supply and demand shocks when long run equilibrium relationships between the levels of the variables are included in the empirical specification. Another major difference between the models with the opposite implication for the shock creation versus shock absorption debate is that non-fundamental exchange rate shocks have much larger effects on output and inflation in the cointegrated models. Finally, impulse response functions in the first difference specification die out within a year whereas adjustment to long run equilibrium continues for up to ten years in the cointegrated models. Hence a correct specification of the long-run equilibrium dynamics of exchange rates is essential for capturing also short-run behavior of exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2006. "Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2006:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_008
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    Cited by:

    1. Per Engstrom & Bertil Holmlund, 2009. "Tax evasion and self-employment in a high-tax country: evidence from Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(19), pages 2419-2430.
    2. Hallberg, Daniel, 2006. "Cross-national differences in income poverty among Europe´s 50+," Working Paper Series 2006:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen & Luca Micheletto, 2010. "Public Provision of Private Goods and Nondistortionary Marginal Tax Rates," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Prospect Theory and Higher Moments," Working Paper Series 2006:24, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; asymmetric shocks; structural VAR; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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