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Prospect Theory and Higher Moments

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  • Ågren, Martin

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

The paper relates cumulative prospect theory to the moments of returns distributions, e.g. skewness and kurtosis, assuming returns are normal inverse Gaussian distributed. The normal inverse Gaussian distribution parametrizes the first- to forth-order moments, making the investigation straightforward. Cumulative prospect theory utility is found to be positively related to the skewness. However, the relation is negative when probability weighing is set aside. This shows that cumulative prospect theory investors display a preference for skewness through the probability weighting function. Furthermore, the investor’s utility is inverse hump-shape related to the kurtosis. Consequences for portfolio choice issues are studied. The findings, among others, suggest that optimal cumulative prospect theory portfolios are not meanvariance efficient under the normal inverse Gaussian distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Prospect Theory and Higher Moments," Working Paper Series 2006:24, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2006_024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    17. Angelov, Nikolay, 2006. "Modelling firm mergers as a roommate problem," Working Paper Series 2006:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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    21. Kjellberg, David, 2006. "Measuring Expectations," Working Paper Series 2006:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    22. Alexius, Annika & Post, Erik, 2006. "Cointegration and the stabilizing role of exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2006:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cary Deck & Harris Schlesinger, 2010. "Exploring Higher Order Risk Effects," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1403-1420.
    2. Weinert, Jan-Hendrik & Gründl, Helmut, 2016. "The modern tontine: An innovative instrument for longevity risk management in an aging society," ICIR Working Paper Series 22/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    3. Ohlsson, Henry, 2007. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884–2004," Working Paper Series 2007:23, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen & Luca Micheletto, 2010. "Public Provision of Private Goods and Nondistortionary Marginal Tax Rates," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27, May.
    5. Ebert, Sebastian & Wiesen, Daniel, 2009. "An experimental methodology testing for prudence and third-order preferences," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 21/2009, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cumulative prospect theory; skewness; kurtosis; normal inverse Gaussian distribution; portfolio choice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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