IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/icirwp/2216.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The modern tontine: An innovative instrument for longevity risk management in an aging society

Author

Listed:
  • Weinert, Jan-Hendrik
  • Gründl, Helmut

Abstract

The changing social, financial and regulatory frameworks, such as an increasingly aging society, the current low interest rate environment, as well as the implementation of Solvency II, lead to the search for new product forms for private pension provision. In order to address the various issues, these product forms should reduce or avoid investment guarantees and risks stemming from longevity, still provide reliable insurance benefits and simultaneously take account of the increasing financial resources required for very high ages. In this context, we examine whether a historical concept of insurance, the tontine, entails enough innovative potential to extend and improve the prevailing privately funded pension solutions in a modern way. The tontine basically generates an age-increasing cash flow, which can help to match the increasing financing needs at old ages. However, the tontine generates volatile cash flows, so that - especially in the context of an aging society - the insurance character of the tontine cannot be guaranteed in every situation. We show that partial tontinization of retirement wealth can serve as a reliable supplement to existing pension products.

Suggested Citation

  • Weinert, Jan-Hendrik & Gründl, Helmut, 2016. "The modern tontine: An innovative instrument for longevity risk management in an aging society," ICIR Working Paper Series 22/16, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/144600/1/864217811.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-788, September.
    2. Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
    3. Luc Bissonnette & Michael D. Hurd & Pierre‐Carl Michaud, 2017. "Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(12), pages 285-303, December.
    4. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    5. Hamermesh, Daniel S, 1984. "Consumption during Retirement: The Missing Link in the Life Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 1-7, February.
    6. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2015. "Optimal retirement income tontines," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-105.
    7. Willets, R. C., 2004. "The Cohort Effect: Insights and Explanations," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 833-877, October.
    8. Michael Parsonage & Henry Neuburger, 1992. "Discounting and health benefits," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 71-76, April.
    9. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    10. Ågren, Martin, 2006. "Prospect Theory and Higher Moments," Working Paper Series 2006:24, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Hoermann, Gudrun & Ruß, Jochen, 2008. "Enhanced annuities and the impact of individual underwriting on an insurer's profit situation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 150-157, August.
    12. Mariger, Randall P, 1987. "A Life-cycle Consumption Model with Liquidity Contraints: Theory and Empirical Results," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 533-557, May.
    13. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    14. Kochskämper, Susanna & Pimpertz, Jochen, 2015. "Herausforderungen an die Pflegeinfrastruktur," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 42(3), pages 59-75.
    15. Milevsky,Moshe A., 2006. "The Calculus of Retirement Income," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521842587, September.
    16. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2008. "On simulation-based approaches to risk measurement in mortality with specific reference to Poisson Lee-Carter modelling," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 797-816, April.
    17. Marjon M. Van Der Pol & John A. Cairns, 2000. "Negative and zero time preference for health," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 171-175, March.
    18. Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2003. "Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-272, October.
    19. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcel Bräutigam & Montserrat Guillén & Jens P. Nielsen, 2017. "Facing Up to Longevity with Old Actuarial Methods: A Comparison of Pooled Funds and Income Tontines," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(3), pages 406-422, July.
    2. Weinert, Jan-Hendrik, 2017. "The fair surrender value of a tontine," ICIR Working Paper Series 26/17, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Radermacher, Jan W., 2023. "Mamma Mia! Revealing hidden heterogeneity by PCA-biplot: MPC puzzle for Italy's elderly poor," SAFE Working Paper Series 382, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Thomas Horvath & Thomas Url, 2013. "Bridging-Renten als Überbrückung für Einkommensausfälle vor dem Pensionsantritt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46684.
    3. Garry F. Barrett & Matthew Brzozowski, 2010. "Involuntary Retirement and the Resolution of the Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Evidence from Australia," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 275, McMaster University.
    4. María José Luengo-Prado & Almudena Sevilla-Sanz, 2010. "Consumption, retirement and life-cycle prices: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 2010-18, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    5. Kevin X. D. Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2011. "Rationalizing Multiple Consumption-Saving Puzzles in a Unified Framework," Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities, Higher Education Press, vol. 6(3), pages 359-388, September.
    6. Kevin X.D. Huang & Frank Caliendo, 2007. "Rationalizing Seven Consumption-Saving Puzzles in a Unified Framework," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0716, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    7. Jim Been & Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2014. "Responses of Time-use to Shocks in Wealth during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp313, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    8. Dutt, Satyajit & Radermacher, Jan W., 2023. "Age, wealth, and the MPC in Europe: A supervised machine learning approach," SAFE Working Paper Series 383, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    9. Frank N. Caliendo & Maria Casanova & Aspen Gorry & Sita Slavov, 2016. "The Welfare Cost of Retirement Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    11. Mauro Mastrogiacomo, 2006. "Testing consumers' asymmetric reaction to wealth changes," CPB Discussion Paper 53.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Kadir Atalay & Garry F. Barrett & Anita Staneva, 2020. "The effect of retirement on home production: evidence from Australia," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 117-139, March.
    13. Lundberg, Shelly & Startza, Richard & Stillman, Steven, 2003. "The retirement-consumption puzzle: a marital bargaining approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1199-1218, May.
    14. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Douglas H. Joines, 2003. "Time-Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 745-784.
    15. Daniel Burkhard, 2015. "Consumption smoothing at retirement: average and quantile treatment effects in the regression discontinuity design," Diskussionsschriften dp1512, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    16. Steven J. Haider & Melvin Stephens, 2007. "Is There a Retirement-Consumption Puzzle? Evidence Using Subjective Retirement Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 247-264, May.
    17. Velarde, Melanie & Herrmann, Roland, 2014. "How retirement changes consumption and household production of food: Lessons from German time-use data," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 1-10.
    18. Nils Grevenbrock & Max Groneck & Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2021. "Cognition, Optimism, And The Formation Of Age‐Dependent Survival Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(2), pages 887-918, May.
    19. B. Douglas Bernheim & Jonathan Skinner & Steven Weinberg, 2001. "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth among U.S. Households?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 832-857, September.
    20. Jonathan Fisher & Joseph Marchand, 2014. "Does the retirement consumption puzzle differ across the distribution?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(2), pages 279-296, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Life Insurance; Tontines; Annuities; Asset Allocation; Retirement Welfare; Aging Society;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icffmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.