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Experimental long-term effects of early-childhood and school-age exposure to a conditional cash transfer program

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  • Teresa Molina Millan

    (NOVA SBE - NOVA - School of Business and Economics - NOVA - Universidade Nova de Lisboa = NOVA University Lisbon)

  • Karen Macours

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • John Maluccio

    (Middlebury College)

  • Luis Tejerina

    (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank)

Abstract

Numerous evaluations of conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs show positive short-term impacts, but there is only limited evidence on whether these benefits translate into sustained longer-term gains. This paper uses the municipal-level randomized assignment of a CCT program implemented for five years in Honduras to estimate long-term effects 13 years after the program began. We estimate intent-to-treat effects using individual-level data from the population census, which allows assignment of individuals to their municipality of birth, thereby circumventing migration selection concerns. For the non-indigenous, we find positive and robust impacts on educational outcomes for cohorts of a very wide age range. These include increases of more than 50 percent for secondary school completion rates and the probability of reaching university studies for those exposed at school-going ages. They also include substantive gains for grades attained and current enrollment for others exposed during early childhood, raising the possibility of further gains going forward. Educational gains are, however, more limited for the indigenous. Finally, exposure to the CCT increased the probability of international migration for young men, from 3 to 7 percentage points, also stronger for the non-indigenous. Both early childhood exposure to the nutrition and health components of the CCT as well as exposure during school-going ages to the educational components led to sustained increases in human capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Molina Millan & Karen Macours & John Maluccio & Luis Tejerina, 2020. "Experimental long-term effects of early-childhood and school-age exposure to a conditional cash transfer program," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-02297704, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-02297704
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2019.102385
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02297704
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    Cited by:

    1. Jules Gazeaud & Claire Ricard, 2021. "Conditional cash transfers and the learning crisis: evidence from Tayssir scale-up in Morocco," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2102, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    2. Cilliers, Jacobus & Fleisch, Brahm & Kotze, Janeli & Mohohlwane, Mpumi & Taylor, Stephen, 2022. "The Challenge of Sustaining Effective Teaching: Spillovers, Fade-out, and the Cost-effectiveness of Teacher Development Programs," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    3. Oliveira, Gabriel & Chagas, André, 2020. "Long-Term Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers on Children: The Brazilian Case," TD NEREUS 9-2020, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    4. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 13612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Clemens, Michael A., 2022. "Do Cash Transfers Deter Migration?," IZA Policy Papers 191, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Zhou, Lei & Jiang, Bo & Wang, Jingxi, 2020. "Do cash transfers have impacts on student Academic, cognitive, and enrollment outcomes? Evidence from rural China," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Maria Caridad Araujo & Karen Macours, 2021. "Education, Income and Mobility: Experimental Impacts of Childhood Exposure to Progresa after 20 Years," Working Papers halshs-03364972, HAL.
    8. De Walque,Damien B. C. M. & Mavridis,Dimitris, 2022. "Cash Transfers after Ebola in Guinea : Lessons Learned on Human Capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9989, The World Bank.
    9. Bianchi, Nicola & Lu, Yi & Song, Hong, 2022. "The effect of computer-assisted learning on students’ long-term development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Tomoki Fujii & Christine Ho & Rohan Ray & Abu S. Shonchoy, 2021. "Conditional Cash Transfer, Loss Framing, and SMS Nudges: Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment in Bangladesh," Working Papers 2109, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    11. Bergstrom,Katy Ann & Ozler,Berk, 2021. "Improving the Well-Being of Adolescent Girls in Developing Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9827, The World Bank.
    12. Britta Rude, 2022. "Can We Grow with our Children? The Effects of a Comprehensive Early Childhood Development Program," ifo Working Paper Series 372, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Shreya Biswas & Upasak Das, 2021. "Whats the worth of a promise? Evaluating the indirect effects of a program to reduce early marriage in India," Papers 2104.12215, arXiv.org.
    14. Patel-Campillo, Anouk & Salas García, V.B., 2022. "Breaking the poverty cycle? Conditional cash transfers and higher education attainment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115021, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Patel-Campillo, Anouk & García, V.B. Salas, 2022. "Breaking the poverty cycle? Conditional cash transfers and higher education attainment," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Orazio Attanasio & Sarah Cattan & Costas Meghir, 2021. "Early Childhood Development, Human Capital and Poverty," NBER Working Papers 29362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Subedi, Mukti Nath & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Ulker, Aydogan, 2022. "Effects of Affirmative Action on Educational and Labour Market Outcomes: Evidence from Nepal's Reservation Policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 443-463.
    18. Clotilde Mahé & Philipp Hessel, 2022. "School-age exposure to conditional cash transfers and adult mental health: Evidence from Mexico’s Progresa," Documentos de trabajo 020155, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.

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    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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