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Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico

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  • Susan W Parker
  • Tom Vogl

Abstract

Conditional cash transfer programmes have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to the Mexico’s flagship programme Progresa by leveraging the age structure of benefits and geographic variation in early programme penetration nationwide. Childhood exposure improves women’s outcomes in early adulthood with increases in educational attainment, geographic mobility, labour market performance and household living standards. For men, effects are smaller and more difficult to distinguish from spatial convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan W Parker & Tom Vogl, 2023. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(655), pages 2775-2806.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:133:y:2023:i:655:p:2775-2806.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/uead049
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    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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