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Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico

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Listed:
  • Susan W. Parker
  • Tom Vogl

Abstract

Conditional cash transfer programs have spread to over 80 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects on the youth they target. This paper estimates the impact of childhood exposure to the Mexican program Progresa on economic outcomes in early adulthood by leveraging the age structure of program benefits and geographic variation in early program penetration nationwide. The study design avoids the representativeness and attrition issues that have plagued efforts to estimate longer-run impacts of Progresa and other similar programs. Childhood exposure to the program improves educational attainment, geographic mobility, labor market outcomes, and household economic outcomes in early adulthood. Schooling impacts are similar for men and women, at roughly 1.5 years, while labor market impacts are more pronounced for women, amounting to 30-40% of mean labor force participation and 50% of mean labor income in pre-program cohorts. Indexes capturing household economic impacts increase on the order of 0.2 standard deviations.

Suggested Citation

  • Susan W. Parker & Tom Vogl, 2018. "Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico," NBER Working Papers 24303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24303
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Galasso, Emanuela & Negre, Mario, 2018. "Shared Prosperity: Concepts, Data, and Some Policy Examples," IZA Discussion Papers 11571, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kazushi Takahashi & Yukichi Mano & Keijiro Otsuka, 2018. "Spillovers as a Driver to Reduce Ex-post Inequality Generated by Randomized Experiments: Evidence from an Agricultural Training Intervention," Working Papers 174, JICA Research Institute.
    3. Molina Millán, Teresa & Macours, Karen & Maluccio, John & Tejerina, Luis, 2019. "Experimental Long-Term Effects of Early-Childhood and School-Age Exposure to a Conditional Cash Transfer Program," IZA Discussion Papers 12590, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Sarah Baird & David McKenzie & Berk Özler, 2018. "The effects of cash transfers on adult labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.
    5. repec:eee:deveco:v:140:y:2019:i:c:p:169-185 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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