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The Laffer Curve for Rules of Origin

Author

Listed:
  • Keith Head

    (UBC - University of British Columbia [Canada], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Thierry Mayer

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

  • Marc Melitz

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University - Harvard University, NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research [New York] - NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research)

Abstract

Firms in regional trade areas choose whether to comply with rules of origin (RoO) or pay a tariff penalty. Stricter content requirements initially expand regional part sourcing, but contract it when set at levels above a threshold, analogously to the Laffer curve for taxes. We calibrate the model to fit part cost shares for autos sold in North America. The effects of the 75% RoO imposed in 2020 depend on the relevant tariff and the ability to relocate assembly. With fixed assembly locations, the higher RoO reduces employment in all three countries for cars, where tariffs are low. For trucks, the 25% US tariff induces more compliance in Canada and Mexico, increasing employment in those countries. With the option to relocate assembly, higher RoOs redistribute employment to the US, but Canada and Mexico lose more, leading to a half percent decline in North American employment for both cars and trucks.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & Marc Melitz, 2024. "The Laffer Curve for Rules of Origin," Post-Print hal-04606111, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04606111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.103911
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-04606111v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Laura Alfaro & Paola Conconi & Fariha Kamal & Zachary Kroff, 2026. "Trade within multinational boundaries," CEP Discussion Papers dp2153, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Pau S. Pujolas & Jack Rossbach, 2026. "Fiscal Limits to Protectionism: The 2025 U.S.Tariff Laffer Curve," Department of Economics Working Papers 2026-01, McMaster University.
    5. Pau Pujolas & Jack Rossbach, 2026. "Fiscal Limits to Protectionism: The 2025 U.S. Tariff Laffer Curve," Papers 2602.18938, arXiv.org.
    6. Chung, Wanyu & Perroni, Carlo, 2025. "Regional content requirements and market power: Lessons from CUSFTA," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Laura Alfaro & Paula Conconi & Fariha FK Kamal & Zachary ZK Kroll, 2026. "Trade Within Multinational Boundaries," Working Papers ECARES 2025-01, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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