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Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of the effects of Brexit on UK regions and sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Jia, Ningyuan
  • Dhingra, Swati
  • Fry, Emily
  • Hale, Sophie

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of the EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit based on uncertain scenarios, this analysis introduces new estimates of tariffs and non-tariff measures specified by the TCA. The findings show that while the TCA will necessitate substantial adjustments for some sectors, Brexit will not fundamentally alter the overall structure of the UK economy. However, the main impacts will manifest as significant hits to real wages and productivity, exacerbating the long-standing economic challenges faced by the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia, Ningyuan & Dhingra, Swati & Fry, Emily & Hale, Sophie, 2026. "Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of the effects of Brexit on UK regions and sectors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 140318, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:140318
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/140318/
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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