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Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking

  • Seo-Young Cho

This study aims to identify robust push and pull factors of human trafficking. I test for the robustness of 78 push and 67 pull factors suggested in the literature. By employing an extreme bound analysis, running more than two million regressions with all possible combinations of variables for up to 180 countries during the period of 1995-2010, I show that crime prevalence robustly explains human trafficking prevalence both in destination and origin countries. My finding also implies that a low level of gender equality and development may have constraining effects on human trafficking outflows, contrary to expectations. The linkage between migration and human trafficking is less clear, and institutional quality matters more in origin countries than destinations.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.405651.de/diw_econsec0070.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Economics of Security Working Paper Series with number 70.

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Length: 35 p.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diweos:diweos70
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  1. Belser, Patrick, 2005. "Forced labour and human trafficking : estimating the profits," ILO Working Papers 376750, International Labour Organization.
  2. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.
  3. Toman Omar Mahmoud & Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Economic Drivers of Human Trafficking: Micro-Evidence from Five Eastern European Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1480, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  4. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  5. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy & Khamis, Melanie, 2010. "Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict, Displaced Persons and Human Trafficking: An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5142, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Seo-Young Cho & Axel Dreher & Eric Neumayer, 2011. "Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 96, Courant Research Centre PEG, revised 16 Jan 2012.
  7. Niklas Jakobsson & Andreas Kotsadam, 2013. "The law and economics of international sex slavery: prostitution laws and trafficking for sexual exploitation," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, February.
  8. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I just ran four million regressions," Economics Working Papers 201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  9. Friebel, Guido & Guriev, Sergei, 2004. "Smuggling Humans: A Theory of Debt-Financed Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 1025, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Seo-Young Cho, 2011. "Integrating Equality - Globalization, Women’s Rights, Son Preference and Human Trafficking," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 73, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  11. Randall Akee & Arnab K. Basu & Arjun Bedi & Nancy H. Chau, 2014. "Transnational Trafficking, Law Enforcement, and Victim Protection: A Middleman Trafficker’s Perspective," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 349 - 386.
  12. Danailova-Trainor, Gergana & Belser, Patrick, 2006. "Globalization and the illicit market for human trafficking : an empirical analysis of supply and demand," ILO Working Papers 395339, International Labour Organization.
  13. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2011. "The Spread of Anti-Trafficking Policies - Evidence from a New Index," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 20, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  14. Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2011. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database," Working Papers 2011-25, CEPII research center.
  15. Gil S. Epstein & Ira N. Gang, 2010. "Migration and Culture," Working Papers 2010-17, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  16. Maria Laura Di Tommaso & I. Shima & S. Strøm & F. Bettio, 2007. "As bad as it gets: well being deprivation of sexually exploited trafficked women," CHILD Working Papers wp10_07, CHILD - Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic economics - ITALY.
  17. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2010. "The spread of anti-trafficking policies: Evidence from a new index," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  18. Francesca Bettio & Tushar Nandi, 2010. "Evidence on women trafficked for sexual exploitation: A rights based analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 15-42, February.
  19. Danailova-Trainor, Gergana & Belser, Patrick, 2006. "Globalization and the illicit market for human trafficking : an empirical analysis of supply and demand," ILO Working Papers 395373, International Labour Organization.
  20. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
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