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Modeling for Determinants of Human Trafficking

  • Seo-Young Cho


    (University of Goettingen / Germany)

This study aims to identify robust push and pull factors of human trafficking. I test for the robustness of 78 push and 67 pull factors suggested in the literature. By employing an extreme bound analysis, running more than two million regressions with all possible combinations of variables for up to 180 countries during the period of 1995-2010, I show that crime prevalence robustly explains human trafficking prevalence both in destination and origin countries. My finding also implies that a low level of gender equality and development may have constraining effects on human trafficking outflows, contrary to expectations. The linkage between migration and human trafficking is less clear, and institutional quality matters more in origin countries than destinations.

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Paper provided by Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research in its series Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers with number 216.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 17 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:got:iaidps:216
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  1. Gil Epstein & Ira Gang, 2010. "Migration and Culture," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1020, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  2. Danailova-Trainor, Gergana & Belser, Patrick, 2006. "Globalization and the illicit market for human trafficking : an empirical analysis of supply and demand," ILO Working Papers 395339, International Labour Organization.
  3. Seo-Young Cho & Axel Dreher & Eric Neumayer, 2012. "Does Legalized Prostitution Increase Human Trafficking?," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 71, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2009. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," KOF Working papers 09-224, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  5. Belser, Patrick, 2005. "Forced labour and human trafficking : estimating the profits," ILO Working Papers 376750, International Labour Organization.
  6. Di Tommaso, M. L. & Shima, I. & Strøm, S. & Bettio, F., 2007. "As bad as it gets: Well being deprivation of sexually exploited trafficked women," Memorandum 09/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Francesca Bettio & Tushar Nandi, 2010. "Evidence on women trafficked for sexual exploitation: A rights based analysis," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 15-42, February.
  8. Omar Mahmoud, Toman & Trebesch, Christoph, 2009. "The Economic Drivers of Human Trafficking: Micro-Evidence from Five Eastern European Countries," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 39939, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  9. Guido Friebel & Sergei Guriev, 2006. "Smuggling Humans: A Theory of Debt-financed Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(6), pages 1085-1111, December.
  10. Thierry Mayer & Soledad Zignago, 2011. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures: The GeoDist database," Working Papers 2011-25, CEPII research center.
  11. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1996. "Law and Finance," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1768, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    • La Porta, Rafael & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1998. "Law and Finance," Scholarly Articles 3451310, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Law and Finance," Working Paper 19451, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    • Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1996. "Law and Finance," NBER Working Papers 5661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Seo-Young Cho, 2011. "Integrating Equality - Globalization, Women’s Rights, Son Preference and Human Trafficking," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 73, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  14. Jakobsson, Niklas & Kotsadam, Andreas, 2010. "The Law and Economics of International Sex Slavery: Prostitution Laws and Trafficking for Sexual Exploitation," Working Papers in Economics 458, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 07 Jun 2013.
  15. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2011. "The Spread of Anti-Trafficking Policies: Evidence from a New Index," IZA Discussion Papers 5559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Soares, Rodrigo R., 2004. "Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 155-184, February.
  17. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy & Khamis, Melanie, 2010. "Ethnic Fragmentation, Conflict, Displaced Persons and Human Trafficking: An Empirical Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5142, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Cho, Seo-Young & Dreher, Axel & Neumayer, Eric, 2010. "The spread of anti-trafficking policies: Evidence from a new index," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 119, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  19. Akee, Randall K. Q. & Bedi, Arjun S. & Basu, Arnab K. & Chau, Nancy, 2011. "Transnational Trafficking, Law Enforcement and Victim Protection: A Middleman Trafficker's Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 6226, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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