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Refugee Immigration and Natives' Fertility

Author

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  • Cevat Giray Aksoy
  • Aya Aboulhosn
  • Berkay Ozcan

Abstract

Research and policy debates on population aging typically assume that immigration matters only through immigrants' own fertility and its impact on total population size, ignoring effects on natives' fertility. We study this margin in the context of the large inflow of Syrian refugees into Türkiye after 2011. Using an instrumental-variables strategy, we provide evidence that greater local exposure to refugees increases native fertility. Drawing on complete birth histories from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we find that the response operates primarily through earlier entry into motherhood and is concentrated among younger women. The result holds across three independent datasets, including administrative birth registers, and is mirrored in women's stated ideal number of children. Examining potential mechanisms, we find the evidence most consistent with improved household economic security and find no support for channels operating through housing costs or the use of paid childcare.

Suggested Citation

  • Cevat Giray Aksoy & Aya Aboulhosn & Berkay Ozcan, 2026. "Refugee Immigration and Natives' Fertility," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26212, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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