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Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Aboulhosn, Aya

    (American University)

  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray

    (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

  • Ozcan, Berkay

    (LSE)

Abstract

Research and policy debates on population aging typically assume that immigration matters only through immigrants’ own fertility and its impact on total population size, ignoring effects on natives’ fertility. We study this margin in the context of the large inflow of Syrian refugees into Türkiye after 2011. Using an instrumental-variables strategy, we provide evidence that greater local exposure to refugees increases native fertility. Drawing on complete birth histories from the Demographic and Health Surveys, we find that the response operates primarily through earlier entry into motherhood and is concentrated among younger women. The result holds across three independent datasets, including administrative birth registers, and is mirrored in women’s stated ideal number of children. Examining potential mechanisms, we find the evidence most consistent with improved household economic security and find no support for channels operating through housing costs or the use of paid childcare.

Suggested Citation

  • Aboulhosn, Aya & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Ozcan, Berkay, 2026. "Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 18858, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18858
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Bisin & Thierry Verdier, 2000. ""Beyond the Melting Pot": Cultural Transmission, Marriage, and the Evolution of Ethnic and Religious Traits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(3), pages 955-988.
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    4. Eva Mörk & Anna Sjögren & Helena Svaleryd, 2013. "Childcare costs and the demand for children—evidence from a nationwide reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 33-65, January.
    5. Rafael Lalive & Josef Zweimüller, 2009. "How Does Parental Leave Affect Fertility and Return to Work? Evidence from Two Natural Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(3), pages 1363-1402.
    6. Semih Tumen, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Turkey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 456-460, May.
    7. Delia Furtado, 2016. "Fertility Responses of High-Skilled Native Women to Immigrant Inflows," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(1), pages 27-53, February.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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