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Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Aya Aboulhosn
  • Cevat Giray Aksoy
  • Berkay Ozcan

Abstract

Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Aya Aboulhosn & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Berkay Ozcan, 2025. "Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 11683, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11683
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, IZA Network @ LISER.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdurrahman Bekir Aydemir & Giacomo Battiston & Riccardo Franceschin & Asli Ebru Sanlıtürk, 2026. "Post-migration fertility preferences and social norms: Experimental evidence from forced migrants," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26205, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    2. Nur Bilge & Simone Moriconi, 2024. "Syrian Refugees and Gender Inequalities within Households: Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers hal-05122470, HAL.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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