IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crm/wpaper/2505.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Refugee Immigration and Natives Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Aya Aboulhosn

    (American University)

  • Cevat Aksoy

    (EBRD)

  • Berkay Ozcan

    (LSE)

Abstract

Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Aya Aboulhosn & Cevat Aksoy & Berkay Ozcan, 2025. "Refugee Immigration and Natives Fertility," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2505, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2505
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/25005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    3. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    4. Schmitz, Sophia & Weinhardt, Felix, 2019. "Immigration and the Evolution of Local Cultural Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 12509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aya Aboulhosn & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Berkay Ozcan, 2025. "Refugee Immigration and Natives’ Fertility," CESifo Working Paper Series 11683, CESifo.
    2. Mevlude Akbulut‐Yuksel & Naci Mocan & Semih Tumen & Belgi Turan, 2024. "The crime effect of refugees," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 472-508, March.
    3. Altındağ, Onur & Bakış, Ozan & Rozo, Sandra V., 2020. "Blessing or burden? Impacts of refugees on businesses and the informal economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Jamal Bouoiyour & Amal Miftah & Refk Selmi, 2019. "The economic contribution of immigration on Europe: Fresh evidence from a “hybrid” quantile regression model," Working Papers hal-02346700, HAL.
    5. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & Ferrer-i-Carbonell, Ada & Saiz, Albert, 2019. "Immigrant locations and native residential preferences: Emerging ghettos or new communities?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 133-151.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Marco Tabellini, 2024. "The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 5-46, March.
    7. Bahar, Dany & Ibáñez, Ana María & Rozo, Sandra V., 2021. "Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. David Zuchowski, 2025. "Migration response to an immigration shock: evidence from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 21-40.
    9. Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa, 2023. "Decomposing the impact of immigration on house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Stefano Fusaro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2018. "“The Impact of Immigration on Native Employment: Evidence from Italy”," AQR Working Papers 201811, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2018.
    12. R.D. Mariani & F. C. Rosati, 2022. "Immigrant supply of marketable child care and native fertility in Italy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 503-533, December.
    13. Achyuta Adhvaryu, Cesar Anzola-Bravo Ana María Tribín-Uribe & Leonardo Bonilla-Mej�a, Juan Carlos Castro-Fern�ndez Oscar �vila-Montealegre & �nderson Grajales-Olarte, Alexander Guar�n Luz A. Fl�rez & , 2020. "Migración desde Venezuela en Colombia: caracterización del fenómeno y análisis de los efectos macroeconómicos," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 97, pages 1-74.
    14. Giovanni Peri & Derek Rury & Justin C. Wiltshire, 2024. "The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(6), pages 1795-1829.
    15. George J. Borjas, 2019. "Immigration and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 25836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    17. Javier Ortega & Gregory Verdugo, 2022. "Who stays and who leaves? Immigration and the selection of natives across locations," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 221-260.
    18. Bratti, Massimiliano & Deiana, Claudio & Havari, Enkelejda & Mazzarella, Gianluca & Meroni, Elena Claudia, 2017. "What Are You Voting For? Proximity to Refugee Reception Centres and Voting in the 2016 Italian Constitutional Referendum," IZA Discussion Papers 11060, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Hyejin Kim & Jongkwan Lee, 2023. "Task specialization and low‐skilled immigration in a highly educated country: Evidence from Korea," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(4), pages 1078-1101, April.
    20. Marco Pecoraro & Bruno Lanz & Didier Ruedin, 2025. "Refugee migration, unemployment and anti-asylum attitudes: Evidence from the 1990s Yugoslav refugee crisis," IRENE Working Papers 25-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2505. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Moritz Lubczyk or Matthew Nibloe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.