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Refugee Immigration and Natives Fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Aya Aboulhosn

    (American University)

  • Cevat Aksoy

    (EBRD)

  • Berkay Ozcan

    (LSE)

Abstract

Debates about immigration’s role in addressing population aging typically concentrate on immigrant fertility rates. Moreover, standard projections account for migration’s impact on overall population growth while largely overlooking how immigration might affect native fertility. In contrast, we show that forced immigration influences native fertility as well. We investigate this relationship by examining the influx of refugees into Türkiye following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Using two complementary instrumental variable strategies, we find robust evidence that native fertility increases in response to forced migration. This result holds across three distinct datasets and is further supported by a corresponding rise in subjective fertility measures, such as the ideal number of children. Additionally, we explore four potential mechanisms and document significant heterogeneity in fertility responses among different native subgroups. Our findings suggest that factors related to the labor market and norm transmission may help explain the observed increase in native fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Aya Aboulhosn & Cevat Aksoy & Berkay Ozcan, 2025. "Refugee Immigration and Natives Fertility," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2505, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2505
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael A. Clemens & Jennifer Hunt, 2019. "The Labor Market Effects of Refugee Waves: Reconciling Conflicting Results," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(4), pages 818-857, August.
    2. Onur Altındağ & Neeraj Kaushal, 2021. "Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(1), pages 149-178, January.
    3. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    4. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    5. Schmitz, Sophia & Weinhardt, Felix, 2019. "Immigration and the Evolution of Local Cultural Norms," IZA Discussion Papers 12509, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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