IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/crm/wpaper/2202.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility

Author

Listed:
  • Michael A. Clemens

    (Michael A. Clemens)

Abstract

The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers have begun to move between countries at rates not seen since before World War One. During the same period, economists’ study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Clemens, 2022. "Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2202, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2202
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cream-migration.org/publ_uploads/CDP_02_22_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alesina, Alberto & Murard, Elie & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 12130, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Jeanne Lafortune & Ethan Lewis & José Tessada, 2019. "People and Machines: A Look at the Evolving Relationship between Capital and Skill in Manufacturing, 1860–1930, Using Immigration Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 30-43, March.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Ian P. Preston, 2019. "Free Movement, Open Borders, and the Global Gains from Labor Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 783-808, August.
    4. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Marco Tabellini, 2018. "Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration," Harvard Business School Working Papers 19-005, Harvard Business School, revised Apr 2019.
    6. Andrea Ariu, 2018. "Determinants and Consequences of International Migration," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst (ed.), New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research, chapter 0, pages 49-60, Springer.
    7. Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst, 2018. "Editorial: New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst (ed.), New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research, chapter 0, pages 1-18, Springer.
    8. Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "Migration and trade," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-01802670, HAL.
    9. David Card & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration Economics by George J. Borjas: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1333-1349, December.
    10. Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2018. "Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1468-1487, June.
    11. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan, 2017. "Immigration in American Economic History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1311-1345, December.
    12. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    15. William R. Kerr, 2008. "Ethnic Scientific Communities and International Technology Diffusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 518-537, August.
    16. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    18. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    19. Douglas Gollin & Fabian Lange, 2013. "Equipping immigrants: migration flows and capital movements in small open economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 749-777, December.
    20. Michael Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk? - Working Paper 264," Working Papers 264, Center for Global Development.
    21. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    22. Mayda, Anna-Maria & Parsons, Christopher & Pham, Han & Vézina, Pierre-Louis, 2022. "Refugees and foreign direct investment: Quasi-experimental evidence from US resettlements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    23. Taryn Dinkelman & Martine Mariotti, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of Labor Migration on Human Capital Formation in Communities of Origin," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, October.
    24. Joyce J. Chen, 2015. "The Impact of Skill-Based Immigration Restrictions: The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 298-328.
    25. Michael A. Clemens & Claudio E. Montenegro & Lant Pritchett, 2019. "The Place Premium: Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 201-213, May.
    26. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/24ib66dtho86rp6keb6eqd20hr is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Inklaar, Robert & de Jong, Harmen & Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan, 2018. "Rebasing 'Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-174, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    28. Branko Milanovic, 2015. "Global Inequality of Opportunity: How Much of Our Income Is Determined by Where We Live?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 452-460, May.
    29. Hanson, Gordon H., 2010. "International Migration and the Developing World," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4363-4414, Elsevier.
    30. Kaivan Munshi, 2020. "Social Networks and Migration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 503-524, August.
    31. Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2014. "Who Crossed the Border? Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants in the Early Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1015-1044, December.
    32. Glover, Stephen & Gott, Ceri & Loizillon, Anaïs & Portes, Jonathan & Price, Richard & Spencer, Sarah & Srinivasan, Vasanthi & Willis, Carole, 2001. "Migration: an economic and social analysis," MPRA Paper 75900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    34. Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 6.
    35. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519.
    36. Edward P. Lazear, 2021. "Why Are Some Immigrant Groups More Successful Than Others?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 115-133.
    37. Campaniello, Nadia, 2014. "The causal effect of trade on migration: Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 223-233.
    38. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Marie Timm & Massimo Giuliodori & Paul Muller, 2022. "Tax incentives for high skilled migrants: evidence from a preferential tax scheme in the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-068/V, Tinbergen Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clemens, Michael A. & Pritchett, Lant, 2019. "The new economic case for migration restrictions: An assessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 153-164.
    2. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61.
    3. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 13612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    5. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan, 2017. "Immigration in American Economic History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1311-1345, December.
    6. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Temporary foreign work permits: Honing the tools to defeat human smuggling," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    7. Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou, 2021. "Say it like Goethe: Language learning facilities abroad and the self-selection of immigrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Guo, Rufei & Zhang, Junsen & Zhou, Minghai, 2024. "The demography of the great migration in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Konrad B. Burchardi & Thomas Chaney & Tarek Alexander Hassan & Lisa Tarquinio & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 27075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Clemens, Michael & Pritchett, Lant, 2016. "The New Case for Migration Restrictions: An Assessment," Working Paper Series rwp16-054, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    11. Björn NILSSON, 2019. "Education and migration: insights for policymakers," Working Paper 23ca9c54-061a-4d60-967c-f, Agence française de développement.
    12. Greenwood, Michael J. & Ward, Zachary, 2015. "Immigration quotas, World War I, and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-96.
    13. Leonardo Becchetti & Berkan Acar, 2021. "Public Opinion Views on Immigrants’ Contribution to the Local Economy: the Role of TV Exposure," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 509-532, November.
    14. Ward, Zachary, 2017. "Birds of passage: Return migration, self-selection and immigration quotas," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-52.
    15. Parag Mahajan & Dean Yang, 2020. "Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 250-277, April.
    16. David Andersson & Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2022. "Mass Migration and Technological Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1859-1896.
    17. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7781, CESifo.
    18. Xie, Bin, 2017. "The Effects of Immigration Quotas on Wages, the Great Black Migration, and Industrial Development," IZA Discussion Papers 11214, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Bandiera, Oriana & Rasul, Imran & Viarengo, Martina, 2013. "The Making of Modern America: Migratory Flows in the Age of Mass Migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 23-47.
    20. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & López-Alonso, Moramay, 2023. "Migrant Self-Selection and Random Shocks: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 45-85, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; emigration; globalization; labor; demographic; development; wages; employment; model; causes; effects; mobility; long run;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CReAM Administrator or Matthew Nibloe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.