IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/apandp/v112y2022p257-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility

Author

Listed:
  • Michael A. Clemens

Abstract

The past several decades have witnessed a rebirth of global labor mobility. Workers are moving between countries at rates not seen since before World War I. During the same period, economists' study of international migration has been framed by a particular textbook model of location choice. This paper reviews the evidence on the economic causes and effects of global migration during the past half century. That evidence falsifies most of the core predictions of the old model. The economics of migration will regain vitality and relevance by discarding and replacing its outworn paradigm.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael A. Clemens, 2022. "Migration on the Rise, a Paradigm in Decline: The Last Half-Century of Global Mobility," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 257-261, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:257-61
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20221050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221050
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221050.appx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/pandp.20221050.ds
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/pandp.20221050?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Giovanni Peri, 2021. "Rethinking The Effect Of Immigration On Wages," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Firms and Workers in a Globalized World Larger Markets, Tougher Competition, chapter 9, pages 245-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Michael A. Clemens & Ethan G. Lewis & Hannah M. Postel, 2018. "Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1468-1487, June.
    3. Mayda, Anna-Maria & Parsons, Christopher & Pham, Han & Vézina, Pierre-Louis, 2022. "Refugees and foreign direct investment: Quasi-experimental evidence from US resettlements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Alesina, Alberto & Murard, Elie & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Immigration and Preferences for Redistribution in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 12130, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Douglas Gollin & Fabian Lange, 2013. "Equipping immigrants: migration flows and capital movements in small open economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(4), pages 749-777, December.
    6. Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of Development Economics," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 5, number 6.
    7. Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "Migration and trade," Post-Print halshs-01802670, HAL.
    8. Michael Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk? - Working Paper 264," Working Papers 264, Center for Global Development.
    9. Jeanne Lafortune & Ethan Lewis & José Tessada, 2019. "People and Machines: A Look at the Evolving Relationship between Capital and Skill in Manufacturing, 1860–1930, Using Immigration Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(1), pages 30-43, March.
    10. Inklaar, Robert & de Jong, Harmen & Bolt, Jutta & van Zanden, Jan, 2018. "Rebasing 'Maddison': new income comparisons and the shape of long-run economic development," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-174, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    11. Campaniello, Nadia, 2014. "The causal effect of trade on migration: Evidence from countries of the Euro-Mediterranean partnership," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 223-233.
    12. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan, 2017. "Immigration in American Economic History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1311-1345, December.
    13. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    14. Kaivan Munshi, 2020. "Social Networks and Migration," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 503-524, August.
    15. Christian Dustmann & Ian P. Preston, 2019. "Free Movement, Open Borders, and the Global Gains from Labor Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 783-808, August.
    16. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    17. Michael A. Clemens & Claudio E. Montenegro & Lant Pritchett, 2019. "The Place Premium: Bounding the Price Equivalent of Migration Barriers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 201-213, May.
    18. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    20. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    21. A. D. Roy, 1951. "Some Thoughts On The Distribution Of Earnings," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 135-146.
    22. Taryn Dinkelman & Martine Mariotti, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of Labor Migration on Human Capital Formation in Communities of Origin," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 1-35, October.
    23. William R. Kerr, 2008. "Ethnic Scientific Communities and International Technology Diffusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 518-537, August.
    24. Joyce J. Chen, 2015. "The Impact of Skill-Based Immigration Restrictions: The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(3), pages 298-328.
    25. Marco Tabellini, 2018. "Gifts of the Immigrants, Woes of the Natives: Lessons from the Age of Mass Migration," Harvard Business School Working Papers 19-005, Harvard Business School, revised Apr 2019.
    26. George J. Borjas, 2021. "The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining The Impact Of Immigration On The Labor Market," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 9, pages 235-274, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    27. Kosack, Edward & Ward, Zachary, 2014. "Who Crossed the Border? Self-Selection of Mexican Migrants in the Early Twentieth Century," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 1015-1044, December.
    28. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/24ib66dtho86rp6keb6eqd20hr is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Andrea Ariu, 2018. "Determinants and Consequences of International Migration," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst (ed.), New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research, chapter 0, pages 49-60, Springer.
    30. Branko Milanovic, 2015. "Global Inequality of Opportunity: How Much of Our Income Is Determined by Where We Live?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 452-460, May.
    31. Edward P. Lazear, 2021. "Why Are Some Immigrant Groups More Successful Than Others?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 115-133.
    32. Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst, 2018. "Editorial: New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Bianca Biagi & Alessandra Faggian & Isha Rajbhandari & Viktor A. Venhorst (ed.), New Frontiers in Interregional Migration Research, chapter 0, pages 1-18, Springer.
    33. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2007. "Long-Run Changes in the Wage Structure: Narrowing, Widening, Polarizing," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 135-168.
    34. Hanson, Gordon H., 2010. "International Migration and the Developing World," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4363-4414, Elsevier.
    35. Hatton, Timothy J. & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "The Age of Mass Migration: Causes and Economic Impact," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116519.
    36. Glover, Stephen & Gott, Ceri & Loizillon, Anaïs & Portes, Jonathan & Price, Richard & Spencer, Sarah & Srinivasan, Vasanthi & Willis, Carole, 2001. "Migration: an economic and social analysis," MPRA Paper 75900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    37. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    38. David Card & Giovanni Peri, 2016. "Immigration Economics by George J. Borjas: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1333-1349, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timm, Lisa Marie & Giuliodori, Massimo & Muller, Paul, 2022. "Tax Incentives for High Skilled Migrants: Evidence from a Preferential Tax Scheme in the Netherlands," IZA Discussion Papers 15582, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clemens, Michael A. & Pritchett, Lant, 2019. "The new economic case for migration restrictions: An assessment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 153-164.
    2. Jens Ruhose, 2015. "Microeconometric Analyses on Economic Consequences of Selective Migration," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 61.
    3. Ran Abramitzky & Leah Boustan, 2017. "Immigration in American Economic History," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1311-1345, December.
    4. Clemens, Michael & Pritchett, Lant, 2016. "The New Case for Migration Restrictions: An Assessment," Working Paper Series rwp16-054, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Michael A. Clemens & Mariapia Mendola, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson’s Paradox," Working Papers 539, Center for Global Development.
    6. Burchardi, Konrad & Terry, Stephen & Chaney, Thomas & Tarquinio, Lisa & Hassan, Tarek, 2020. "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 14719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou, 2021. "Say it like Goethe: Language learning facilities abroad and the self-selection of immigrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Dustmann, Christian & Glitz, Albrecht, 2011. "Migration and Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 327-439, Elsevier.
    9. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Panu Poutvaara, 2019. "Refugees' and Irregular Migrants' Self-Selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7781, CESifo.
    10. Björn NILSSON, 2019. "Education and migration: insights for policymakers," Working Paper 23ca9c54-061a-4d60-967c-f, Agence française de développement.
    11. Greenwood, Michael J. & Ward, Zachary, 2015. "Immigration quotas, World War I, and emigrant flows from the United States in the early 20th century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 76-96.
    12. Christian Dustmann & Ian P. Preston, 2019. "Free Movement, Open Borders, and the Global Gains from Labor Mobility," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 783-808, August.
    13. Escamilla-Guerrero, David & López-Alonso, Moramay, 2023. "Migrant Self-Selection and Random Shocks: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 45-85, March.
    14. David Andersson & Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2022. "Mass Migration and Technological Change," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1859-1896.
    15. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go, Delfin S & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2016. "Global Migration Revisited: Short-term Pains, Long-term Gains, and the Potential for South-South Migration," Conference papers 332700, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Leonardo Becchetti & Berkan Acar, 2021. "Public Opinion Views on Immigrants’ Contribution to the Local Economy: the Role of TV Exposure," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 509-532, November.
    17. Agostina Brinatti & Xing Guo, 2023. "Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy," Staff Working Papers 23-60, Bank of Canada.
    18. Xie, Bin, 2017. "The Effects of Immigration Quotas on Wages, the Great Black Migration, and Industrial Development," IZA Discussion Papers 11214, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Ward, Zachary, 2017. "Birds of passage: Return migration, self-selection and immigration quotas," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-52.
    20. Michael A. Clemens & Timothy N. Ogden, 2020. "Migration and household finances: How a different framing can improve thinking about migration," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 38(1), pages 3-27, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:112:y:2022:p:257-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.