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Can the Euro Area Avoid a “Lost Decade”?

Author

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  • Benjamin Carton
  • Jérôme Héricourt
  • Fabien Tripier

Abstract

A “lost decade” refers to an extended period of low or negative growth triggered by an economic crisis and that could have been avoided by the use of efficient crisis policies. The risk to the world’s developed economies of a lost decade was highlighted early on in the 2007-2008 crisis. Now, five years on from the severe recession of 2009, the risk appears much more of a concern for the Euro Area. We find that there is currently a moderate to high risk of production capacities in the Euro Area being permanently impaired. The risk relates mostly to the prolonged period of stalled investment and persistent unemployment, with its detrimental effect on human capital. In addition, paying off past debt will be painful to both the public and private sectors, in particular in the context of a low inflation environment. The policy response in the Euro Area has been hesitant. It emphasised structural reforms over cyclical policies. While structural reforms are a good lever for growth in the long term, they need to be accompanied by much stronger cyclical policies, especially given the recessionary environment. In short, there is a danger the decade could be lost because of an excess of confidence in the ability to fight a major economic crisis with structural reforms only.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Carton & Jérôme Héricourt & Fabien Tripier, 2014. "Can the Euro Area Avoid a “Lost Decade”?," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-02, CEPII research center.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepipb:2014-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anne-Laure Delatte & Sébastien Jean, 2017. "Trade and Macro-Economic Issues for International Co-Ordinational in Tense Times," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-16, CEPII research center.
    2. Matthieu Crozet & Gianluca Orefice, 2017. "Trade and Labor Market: What Do We Know?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-15, CEPII research center.
    3. Xavier Chojnicki & Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot, 2016. "Intra-European Labor Migration in Crisis Times," Post-Print hal-01610055, HAL.
    4. Serranito, Francisco, 2015. "Dévaluation interne, politiques structurelles et réductions des déficits publics : les réponses apportées par la « troïka » sont-elles un remède aux déséquilibres externes des pays périphériques de la," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 18.
    5. Sébastien Jean & Ariell Reshef, 2017. "Why Trade, and What Would Be the Consequences of Protectionism?," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-18, CEPII research center.
    6. Michel Aglietta & Étienne Espagne, 2015. "Financing energy and low-carbon investment: public guarantees and the ECB," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-06, CEPII research center.
    7. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2015. "Currency Turmoil in an Unbalanced World Economy," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 46-57, November-.
    8. Michel Aglietta & Guo Bai, 2014. "China’s Roadmap to Harmonious Society : Third Plenum Decisions on “major issues concerning comprehensively deepening reforms”," CEPII Policy Brief 2014-03, CEPII research center.
    9. Hillel Rapoport, 2017. "Who is Afraid of the Brain Drain? A Development Economist’s View," CEPII Policy Brief 2017-14, CEPII research center.
    10. Etienne Espagne, 2016. "Climate Finance at COP21 and After: Lessons Learnt," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-09, CEPII research center.
    11. Christophe Destais, 2016. "Central Bank Currency Swaps and the International Monetary System," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2253-2266, October.
    12. Michel Aglietta & Guo Bai, 2016. "China’s 13th Five-Year Plan. In Pursuit of a “Moderately Prosperous Society”," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-12, CEPII research center.
    13. Cecilia Bellora & Sébastien Jean, 2016. "Granting Market Economy Status to China in the EU: An Economic Impact Assessment," CEPII Policy Brief 2016-11, CEPII research center.
    14. Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 2016. "Trump and the Dollar in the Refection of History," Working Papers hal-01671414, HAL.
    15. Natacha Valla & Jesper Berg & Laurent Clerc & Olivier Garnier & Erik Nielsen, 2015. "A holistic approach to ECB asset purchases, the Investment Plan and CMU," CEPII Policy Brief 2015-07, CEPII research center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Lost decade; Crisis; Growth; Investment; R&D; Unemployment; Debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor

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