IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ifowps/_307.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Framework for Modeling the Dynamics of Power Markets – The EU-REGEN Model

Author

Listed:
  • Geoffrey J. Blanford
  • Christoph Weissbart

Abstract

The long-run development of power markets will be deeply affected by the gradual substitution of fossil fuel-based generation technologies by renewable energy technologies (RES). However, the intermittent supply of RES, in combination with the temporal non-homogeneity of electricity demand, limits the competitiveness of renewable energies (Joskow, 2011). We develop a partial-equilibrium model of the European power market that contributes with a framework for capturing the temporal and spatial variability of RES. Furthermore, we differentiate wind and solar technologies by different quality classes and contribute with a routine for using meteorological data to approximate the temporal availability of renewable energy technologies. The composite of all these RES features allows then for a detailed representation of RES and their implicit substitution elasticity with fossil fuel-based technologies. Our results for the long-run electricity generation path of the European power market show that, under an 80% CO2 emissions reduction scenario until 2050, renewable energy technologies become the main technologies that will meet the demand. The 2050 generation share of wind and solar power combined is around 40%. However, with the detailed depiction of their temporal and spatial characteristics, we identify that gas power is necessary as a complement to compensate for their intermittent supply, which requires in turn the utilization of carbon capture and storage to adhere to the climate target.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey J. Blanford & Christoph Weissbart, 2019. "A Framework for Modeling the Dynamics of Power Markets – The EU-REGEN Model," ifo Working Paper Series 307, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/wp-2019-307-weissbart-blanford-model-power-markets_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Palzer, Andreas & Henning, Hans-Martin, 2014. "A comprehensive model for the German electricity and heat sector in a future energy system with a dominant contribution from renewable energy technologies – Part II: Results," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1019-1034.
    2. Teufel, Felix & Miller, Michael & Genoese, Massimo & Fichtner, Wolf, 2013. "Review of System Dynamics models for electricity market simulations," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    3. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Vance, Colin, 2010. "Economic impacts from the promotion of renewable energy technologies: The German experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4048-4056, August.
    4. Gibbons, Stephen, 2015. "Gone with the wind: Valuing the visual impacts of wind turbines through house prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-196.
    5. Knopf, Brigitte & Nahmmacher, Paul & Schmid, Eva, 2015. "The European renewable energy target for 2030 – An impact assessment of the electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 50-60.
    6. Mier, Mathias & Weissbart, Christoph, 2020. "Power markets in transition: Decarbonization, energy efficiency, and short-term demand response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Roger Fouquet, 2016. "Path dependence in energy systems and economic development," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 1-5, August.
    8. Paul L. Joskow, 2011. "Comparing the Costs of Intermittent and Dispatchable Electricity Generating Technologies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 238-241, May.
    9. Jonas Egerer & Christian von Hirschhausen & Jens Weibezahn & Claudia Kemfert, 2015. "Energiewende und Strommarktdesign: zwei Preiszonen für Deutschland sind keine Lösung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(9), pages 183-190.
    10. Mideksa, Torben K. & Kallbekken, Steffen, 2010. "The impact of climate change on the electricity market: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3579-3585, July.
    11. Friedrich Kunz and Alexander Zerrahn, 2016. "Coordinating Cross-Country Congestion Management: Evidence from Central Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    12. Foley, A.M. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P. & Hur, J. & Baldick, R. & McKeogh, E.J., 2010. "A strategic review of electricity systems models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4522-4530.
    13. Sascha Samadi, 2017. "The Social Costs of Electricity Generation—Categorising Different Types of Costs and Evaluating Their Respective Relevance," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-37, March.
    14. Fischer, Carolyn & Newell, Richard G., 2008. "Environmental and technology policies for climate mitigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 142-162, March.
    15. Rolf Golombek & Sverre Kittelsen & Ingjerd Haddeland, 2012. "Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 357-370, July.
    16. Hirth, Lion, 2013. "The market value of variable renewables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 218-236.
    17. A. Schröder & T. Traber & C. Kemfert, 2013. "Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives In Europe: Climate Policy And Technology Scenarios Until 2050 In The Model Emelie-Esy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-22.
    18. Richter, Jan, 2011. "DIMENSION - A Dispatch and Investment Model for European Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2011-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    19. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    20. Schmid, Eva & Knopf, Brigitte, 2015. "Quantifying the long-term economic benefits of European electricity system integration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 260-269.
    21. Pryor, S.C. & Barthelmie, R.J., 2010. "Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 430-437, January.
    22. Friedrich Kunz & Alexander Zerrahn, 2016. "Coordinating Cross-Country Congestion Management," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Olauson, Jon & Bergkvist, Mikael, 2015. "Modelling the Swedish wind power production using MERRA reanalysis data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 717-725.
    24. Egerer, Jonas & Weibezahn, Jens & Hermann, Hauke, 2016. "Two price zones for the German electricity market — Market implications and distributional effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 365-381.
    25. Schaber, Katrin & Steinke, Florian & Hamacher, Thomas, 2012. "Transmission grid extensions for the integration of variable renewable energies in Europe: Who benefits where?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 123-135.
    26. Henning, Hans-Martin & Palzer, Andreas, 2014. "A comprehensive model for the German electricity and heat sector in a future energy system with a dominant contribution from renewable energy technologies—Part I: Methodology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 1003-1018.
    27. Krekel, Christian & Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Does the presence of wind turbines have negative externalities for people in their surroundings? Evidence from well-being data," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 221-238.
    28. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    29. Lamont, Alan D., 2008. "Assessing the long-term system value of intermittent electric generation technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1208-1231, May.
    30. Huber, Matthias & Weissbart, Christoph, 2015. "On the optimal mix of wind and solar generation in the future Chinese power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 235-243.
    31. Anthony D. Owen, 2004. "Environmental Externalities, Market Distortions and the Economics of Renewable Energy Technologies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 127-158.
    32. Ridley, Barbara & Boland, John & Lauret, Philippe, 2010. "Modelling of diffuse solar fraction with multiple predictors," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-483.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valeriya Azarova & Mathias Mier, 2021. "Investor Type Heterogeneity in Bottom-Up Optimization Models," ifo Working Paper Series 362, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    2. Mathias Mier & Jacqueline Adelowo, 2022. "Taxation of Carbon Emissions with Social and Private Discount Rates," ifo Working Paper Series 374, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Valeriya Azarova & Mathias Mier, 2021. "Unraveling the Black Box of Power Market Models," ifo Working Paper Series 357, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Azarova, Valeriya & Mier, Mathias, 2021. "Market Stability Reserve under exogenous shock: The case of COVID-19 pandemic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Mathias Mier & Valeriya Azarova, 2022. "Investment Cost Specifications Revisited," ifo Working Paper Series 376, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Mathias Mier & Kais Siala & Kristina Govorukha & Philip Mayer, 2020. "Costs and Benefits of Political and Physical Collaboration in the European Power Market," ifo Working Paper Series 343, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Jacqueline Adelowo & Mathias Mier & Christoph Weissbart, 2021. "Taxation of Carbon Emissions and Air Pollution in Intertemporal Optimization Frameworks with Social and Private Discount Rates," ifo Working Paper Series 360, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Karen Pittel & Helena Cordt & Sandra Gschnaller & Mathias Mier & Valeriya Azarova, 2020. "Briefly on the Climate: The Coronavirus Crisis and its Effects on European Emissions Trading," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(06), pages 67-71, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zerrahn, Alexander, 2017. "Wind Power and Externalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 245-260.
    2. Savvidis, Georgios & Siala, Kais & Weissbart, Christoph & Schmidt, Lukas & Borggrefe, Frieder & Kumar, Subhash & Pittel, Karen & Madlener, Reinhard & Hufendiek, Kai, 2019. "The gap between energy policy challenges and model capabilities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 503-520.
    3. Tom Brown & Mirko Schäfer & Martin Greiner, 2019. "Sectoral Interactions as Carbon Dioxide Emissions Approach Zero in a Highly-Renewable European Energy System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    4. Martin Kittel & Wolf-Peter Schill, 2021. "Renewable Energy Targets and Unintended Storage Cycling: Implications for Energy Modeling," Papers 2107.13380, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    5. Pahle, Michael & Schill, Wolf-Peter & Gambardella, Christian & Tietjen, Oliver, 2016. "Renewable Energy Support, Negative Prices, and Real-time Pricing," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 37, pages 147-169.
    6. Mier, Mathias & Weissbart, Christoph, 2020. "Power markets in transition: Decarbonization, energy efficiency, and short-term demand response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Lunz, Benedikt & Stöcker, Philipp & Eckstein, Sascha & Nebel, Arjuna & Samadi, Sascha & Erlach, Berit & Fischedick, Manfred & Elsner, Peter & Sauer, Dirk Uwe, 2016. "Scenario-based comparative assessment of potential future electricity systems – A new methodological approach using Germany in 2050 as an example," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 555-580.
    8. Janda, Karel & Málek, Jan & Rečka, Lukáš, 2017. "Influence of renewable energy sources on transmission networks in Central Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 524-537.
    9. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    10. Romeiro, Diogo Lisbona & Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de & Losekann, Luciano, 2020. "Systemic value of electricity sources – What we can learn from the Brazilian experience?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    12. Lion Hirth, Falko Ueckerdt, and Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Why Wind Is Not Coal: On the Economics of Electricity Generation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    13. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    14. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.
    15. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Build Wind Capacities at Windy Locations? Assessment of System Optimal Wind Locations," EWI Working Papers 2017-9, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    16. Merrick, James H., 2016. "On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 261-274.
    17. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    18. Ruhnau, Oliver, 2022. "How flexible electricity demand stabilizes wind and solar market values: The case of hydrogen electrolyzers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    19. Lehmann, Paul & Reutter, Felix & Tafarte, Philip, 2021. "Optimal siting of onshore wind turbines: Local disamenities matter," UFZ Discussion Papers 4/2021, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    20. Alexandra G. Papadopoulou & George Vasileiou & Alexandros Flamos, 2020. "A Comparison of Dispatchable RES Technoeconomics: Is There a Niche for Concentrated Solar Power?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European power market; renewable energies; energy modeling; investment planning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.