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On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models

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  • Merrick, James H.

Abstract

This paper systematically investigates how to represent intra-annual temporal variability in models of optimum electricity capacity investment. Inappropriate aggregation of temporal resolution can introduce substantial error into model outputs and associated economic insight. The mechanisms underlying the introduction of this error are shown. How many representative periods are needed to fully capture the variability is then investigated. For a sample dataset, a scenario-robust aggregation of hourly (8760) resolution is possible in the order of 10 representative hours when electricity demand is the only source of variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Merrick, James H., 2016. "On representation of temporal variability in electricity capacity planning models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 261-274.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:59:y:2016:i:c:p:261-274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.08.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; Investment; Optimisation; Variability; Renewables;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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