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Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives in Europe: Climate Policy and Technology Scenarios until 2050 in the Model EMELIE-ESY


  • Andreas Schröder
  • Thure Traber
  • Claudia Kemfert


EMELIE-ESY is a partial equilibrium model with focus on electricity markets. Private investors optimize their generation capacity investment and dispatch over the horizon 2010 to 2050. In the framework of the Energy Modeling Forum 28, we investigate how climate policy regimes affect market developments under different technology availabilities and climate policies on the European power markets. The model projects an only minor increase of power consumption because of higher wholesale prices or energy efficiency current climate policy, and a balanced consumption pathway under ambitious climate policy. These results contrast with findings of POLES and PRIMES models in the reference case that predict unexpected heavy consumption increases by 2050. By contrast, we find no investment into Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and a diminishing share of nuclear energy. We find that renewable energy supply extension as projected can sufficiently meet electricity consumption complemented by only few capacity investments in conventional technology.

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  • Andreas Schröder & Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2013. "Market Driven Power Plant Investment Perspectives in Europe: Climate Policy and Technology Scenarios until 2050 in the Model EMELIE-ESY," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1268, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1268

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Traber, Thure & Kemfert, Claudia, 2011. "Refunding ETS proceeds to spur the diffusion of renewable energies: An analysis based on the dynamic oligopolistic electricity market model EMELIE," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-41, January.
    3. -, 2011. "The economics of climate change in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38620, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    1. repec:eee:enepol:v:111:y:2017:i:c:p:268-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Huppmann, Daniel & Egerer, Jonas, 2015. "National-strategic investment in European power transmission capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 191-203.
    3. Rečka, L. & Ščasný, M., 2016. "Impacts of carbon pricing, brown coal availability and gas cost on Czech energy system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 19-33.

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    Electricity markets; investment; climate policy;

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