IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bof/bofitp/2015_027.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions

Author

Listed:
  • Leppänen, Simo
  • Solanko, Laura
  • Kosonen, Riitta

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995–2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but non-linear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1–2 °C). Larger temperature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Leppänen, Simo & Solanko, Laura & Kosonen, Riitta, 2015. "Could climate change affect government expenditures? Early evidence from the Russian regions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 27/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2015_027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/13900/1/dp2715%5b1%5d.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durevall, Dick & Henrekson, Magnus, 2011. "The futile quest for a grand explanation of long-run government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 708-722, August.
    2. Eduardo Borensztein & Eduardo Cavallo & Patricio Valenzuela, 2009. "Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk: The Case for Government Budget Insurance," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 273-294, September.
    3. Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2010. "Federalism in Russia," Post-Print halshs-00754793, HAL.
    4. Ismael Sanz & Francisco Javier Velázquez, 2002. "Determinants of the Composition of Government Expenditure by Functions," European Economy Group Working Papers 13, European Economy Group.
    5. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    6. Melecky, Martin & Raddatz, Claudio, 2011. "How do governments respond after catastrophes ? natural-disaster shocks and the fiscal stance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5564, The World Bank.
    7. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3761-3773, December.
    8. World Bank, 2011. "Russian federation : Social Expenditure and Fiscal Federalism in Russia," World Bank Publications - Reports 2735, The World Bank Group.
    9. Merrifield, John, 2000. "State Government Expenditure Determinants and Tax Revenue Determinants Revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 102(1-2), pages 25-50, January.
    10. Shelton, Cameron A., 2007. "The size and composition of government expenditure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(11-12), pages 2230-2260, December.
    11. Anders Aslund & Sergie Guriev & Andrew Kuchins (ed.), 2010. "Russia after the Global Economic Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4976, July.
    12. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy," Working Paper Series 1055, European Central Bank.
    13. Irina Slinko & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2005. "Laws for Sale: Evidence from Russia," American Law and Economics Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 284-318.
    14. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2010. "Total costs and budgetary effects of adaptation to climate change: An assessment for the European Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-046, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. World Bank, 2011. "Russia - Public Expenditure Review," World Bank Publications - Reports 2767, The World Bank Group.
    16. Noy, Ilan & Nualsri, Aekkanush, 2011. "Fiscal storms: public spending and revenues in the aftermath of natural disasters," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 113-128, February.
    17. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    18. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    19. Ouattara, Bazoumana & Strobl, Eric, 2013. "The fiscal implications of hurricane strikes in the Caribbean," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 105-115.
    20. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    21. Schuknecht, Ludger, 1999. "Fiscal policy cycles and the exchange rate regime in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 569-580, September.
    22. Migara O. De Silva & Galina Kurlyandskaya & Elena Andreeva & Natalia Golovanova, 2009. "Intergovernmental Reforms in the Russian Federation : One Step Forward, Two Steps Back?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2668.
    23. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    24. Solanko, Laura, 2006. "Coping with missing public infrastructure : an analysis of Russian industrial enterprices," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    25. Raj M. Desai & Lev M. Freinkman & Itzhak Goldberg, 2003. "Fiscal federalism and regional growth : evidence from the Russian Federation in the 1990s," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3138, The World Bank.
    26. S. Seo, 2013. "An essay on the impact of climate change on US agriculture: weather fluctuations, climatic shifts, and adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(2), pages 115-124, November.
    27. André Schultz & Alexander Libman, 2015. "Is there a local knowledge advantage in federations? Evidence from a natural experiment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 25-42, January.
    28. -, 2011. "The economics of climate change in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38620, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simo Leppänen & Laura Solanko & Riitta Kosonen, 2017. "The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures: Evidence from Russia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 67-92, May.
    2. Kaixing Huang, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture: the Role of Adaptation," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-20, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The impact of tropical storms on tax revenue," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 472-489, April.
    4. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Víctor E Cabrera, 2020. "Climatic effects and total factor productivity: econometric evidence for Wisconsin dairy farms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 47(3), pages 1276-1301.
    5. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Drogué, Sophie & Jacquet, Florence & Subervie, Julie, 2014. "Introduction: Farmer’s adaptation to environmental changes," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 95(1).
    7. Huang, Kaixing & Wang, Jinxia & Huang, Jikun & Findlay, Christopher, 2018. "The potential benefits of agricultural adaptation to warming in China in the long run," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 139-160, April.
    8. Sokolov, Vladimir & Solanko, Laura, 2016. "Political influence, firm performance and survival," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2016, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Yun, Seong Do & Gramig, Benjamin M & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2015. "Does Spatial Correlation Matter in Econometric Models of Crop Yield Response and Weather?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205465, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    11. Newell, Richard G. & Prest, Brian C. & Sexton, Steven E., 2021. "The GDP-Temperature relationship: Implications for climate change damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Preeya Mohan & Eric Strobl, 2021. "The impact of tropical storms on the accumulation and composition of government debt," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 483-496, June.
    13. Huang, Kaixing & Zhao, Hong & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Findlay, Christopher, 2020. "The impact of climate change on the labor allocation: Empirical evidence from China," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    14. Ma Jiliang Jiliang & Jean-Francois Maystadt, 2016. "Weather shocks, maize yields and adaptation in rural China," Working Papers 104825642, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    15. Mu, Jianhong E. & Mihiar, Christopher & Lewis, David J. & Sleeter, Benjamin & Abatzoglou, John T., 2016. "An Empirical Analysis of Climate Uncertainty and Land-use Transitions in the U.S. Pacific and Mountain Regions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236643, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Klomp, Jeroen, 2017. "Flooded with debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 93-103.
    17. Huang, K., 2018. "How Large is the Potential Economic Benefit of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277238, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Nittai K. Bergman & Rajkamal Iyer & Richard T. Thakor, 2015. "Financial Accelerator at Work: Evidence from Corn Fields," NBER Working Papers 21086, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ilan Noy & Christopher Edmonds, 2016. "The Economic and Fiscal Burdens of Disasters in the Pacific," CESifo Working Paper Series 6237, CESifo.
    20. Kaixing Huang & Nicholas Sim, 2021. "Adaptation May Reduce Climate Damage in Agriculture by Two Thirds," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 47-71, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • R59 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Other
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • P20 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2015_027. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Minna Nyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofitfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.