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Men Are from Mars, and Women Too: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Overconfidence Experiments

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  • Oriana Bandiera
  • Nidhi Parekh
  • Barbara Petrongolo
  • Michelle Rao

Abstract

Gender differences in self-confidence could explain women’s under representation in high-income occupations and glass-ceiling effects. We draw lessons from the economic literature via a survey of experts and a Bayesian hierarchical model that aggregates experimental findings over the last twenty years. The experts’ survey indicates beliefs that men are overconfident and women under-confident. Yet, the literature reveals that both men and women are typically overconfident. Moreover, the model cannot reject the hypothesis that gender differences in self-confidence are equal to zero. In addition, the estimated pooling factor is low, implying that each study contains little information over a common phenomenon. The discordance can be reconciled if the experts overestimate the pooling factor or have priors that are biased and precise.

Suggested Citation

  • Oriana Bandiera & Nidhi Parekh & Barbara Petrongolo & Michelle Rao, 2022. "Men Are from Mars, and Women Too: A Bayesian Meta-Analysis of Overconfidence Experiments," CESifo Working Paper Series 9515, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9515
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    Cited by:

    1. Adamecz-Völgyi, Anna & Shure, Nikki, 2022. "The gender gap in top jobs – The role of overconfidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Dreber, Anna & Heikensten, Emma & Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny, 2022. "Why do women ask for less?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Rustamdjan Hakimov & Renke Schmacker & Camille Terrier, 2023. "Confidence and College Applications: Evidence from a Randomized Intervention," Working Papers 962, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Kinnl, Klara & Möller, Jakob & Walter, Anna, 2023. "Borrowed Plumes:," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 345, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    5. Klara Kinnl & Jakob Möller & Anna Walter, 2023. "The Gender Gap in Claiming Credit for Teamwork," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp345, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    6. Kinnl, Klara & Möller, Jakob & Walter, Anna, 2023. "Borrowed Plumes: The Gender Gap in Claiming Credit for Teamwork," Department for Strategy and Innovation Working Paper Series 01/2023, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.

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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination

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