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Fiscal Windfall Curse

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  • Simon Berset
  • Mark Schelker

Abstract

We study the impact of a one-off exogenous fiscal windfall on local public finances in the canton of Zurich in Switzerland. In contrast to much of the literature of resource windfalls, the windfall occurred in a stable democracy with strong fiscal institutions. It was due to the IPO of Glencore on the London Stock Exchange in 2011. As a result, its CEO paid an extraordinary tax bill of approximately CHF 360 million. About CHF 238 million of that extra tax revenue entered the municipal resource equalization scheme and rained down on the municipalities of the canton of Zurich. This quasi-experimental setup and our unusually rich dataset allow us to estimate the causal effect of this one-off windfall on all municipal accounting positions. We show that it triggered large, permanent expenditure increases targeting specific groups (mostly public employees) at the same time as general tax cuts and user charge hikes. The resulting imbalances caused a 7.5-fold increase in gross debt relative to the windfall. This massive overreaction hints at a substantial fiscal windfall curse, even with strong fiscal institutions.

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  • Simon Berset & Mark Schelker, 2019. "Fiscal Windfall Curse," CESifo Working Paper Series 7795, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7795
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    2. Carla Morvan, 2022. "Municipalities' budgetary response to natural disasters," Working Papers halshs-03684732, HAL.
    3. David R. Agrawal & Jan K. Brueckner & Marius Brülhart, 2024. "Fiscal Federalism in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 10951, CESifo.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    local public finance; fiscal windfalls; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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