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What Can Go Wrong Will Go Wrong: Birthday Effects and Early Tracking in the German School System

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  • Hendrik Jürges
  • Kerstin Schneider

Abstract

At the age of ten German pupils are given a secondary school track recommendation which largely determines the actual track choice. Track choice has major effects on the life course, mainly through labor market outcomes. Using data from the German PISA extension study, we analyze the effect of month of birth and thus relative age on such recommendations. We find that younger pupils are less often recommended to and actually attend Gymnasium, the most attractive track in terms of later life outcomes. Flexible enrolment and grade retention partly offset these inequalities and the relative age effect dissipates as students age.

Suggested Citation

  • Hendrik Jürges & Kerstin Schneider, 2007. "What Can Go Wrong Will Go Wrong: Birthday Effects and Early Tracking in the German School System," CESifo Working Paper Series 2055, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Piopiunik, 2011. "Microeconometric Analyses of Education Production in Germany," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 40.
    2. Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Ellen Greaves, 2013. "Identifying the drivers of month of birth differences in educational attainment," DoQSS Working Papers 13-07, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    3. Nicole Schneeweis & Martina Zweimüller, 2014. "Early Tracking and the Misfortune of Being Young," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(2), pages 394-428, April.
    4. Michael Bahrs & Mathias Schumann, 2020. "Unlucky to be young? The long-term effects of school starting age on smoking behavior and health," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(2), pages 555-600, April.
    5. Cygan-Rehm, Kamila & Maeder, Miriam, 2013. "The effect of education on fertility: Evidence from a compulsory schooling reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-48.
    6. Stefan Bauernschuster & Oliver Falck & Stephan Heblich, 2009. "Training and Innovation," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 323-353.
    7. Hendrik Jürges & Kerstin Schneider, 2010. "Central exit examinations increase performance... but take the fun out of mathematics," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 497-517, March.
    8. Ponzo, Michela & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2014. "The long-lasting effects of school entry age: Evidence from Italian students," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 578-599.
    9. Hart, Robert A & Moro, Mirko & Roberts, J Elizabeth, 2012. "Date of birth, family background, and the 11 plus exam: short- and long-term consequences of the 1944 secondary education reforms in England and W ales," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2012-10, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    10. Marc Piopiunik, 2014. "Intergenerational Transmission of Education and Mediating Channels: Evidence from a Compulsory Schooling Reform in Germany," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 878-907, July.
    11. Roed Larsen, Erling & Solli, Ingeborg, 2012. "Born to Run Behind? Persistent Relative Age Effects on Earnings," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/10, University of Stavanger.
    12. Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Ellen Greaves, 2013. "The impact of age within academic year on adult outcomes," DoQSS Working Papers 13-05, Quantitative Social Science - UCL Social Research Institute, University College London.
    13. Cinnirella, Francesco & Piopiunik, Marc & Winter, Joachim, 2011. "Why does height matter for educational attainment? Evidence from German children," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 407-418.
    14. Bahrs, Michael & Schumann, Mathias, 2016. "Unlucky to Be Young? The Long-Term Effects of School Starting Age on Smoking Behaviour and Health," hche Research Papers 13, University of Hamburg, Hamburg Center for Health Economics (hche).
    15. Martin Schlotter, 2011. "The Effect of Preschool Attendance on Secondary School Track Choice in Germany - Evidence from Siblings," ifo Working Paper Series 106, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    16. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6913 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Solli, Ingeborg, 2012. "Left behind by birth month," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2012/8, University of Stavanger.
    18. Francesco Cinnirella & Marc Piopiunik & Joachim Winter, 2010. "Why Does Height Matter for Educational Attainment? Evidence from German Pre-Teen Children," CESifo Working Paper Series 2983, CESifo.
    19. Marc Piopiunik & Martin Schlotter, 2012. "Identifying the Incidence of "Grading on a Curve": A Within-Student Across-Subject Approach," ifo Working Paper Series 121, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

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