IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/309.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Broner
  • Fernando Guirao

Abstract

private information

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Broner & Fernando Guirao, "undated". "Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises," Working Papers 309, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:309
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allan Drazen & Elhanan Helpman, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(4), pages 835-855.
    2. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
    3. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    4. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    6. A. Pavan & G.M. Angeletos & C. Hellwig, 2004. "On the Dynamics of Information, Coordination and Regime Change," 2004 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Financial crises as herds," Working Papers 600, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
    11. Pastine, Ivan, 2002. "Speculation and the decision to abandon a fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 197-229, June.
    12. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1987. "Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Robert Z. Aliber (ed.), The Reconstruction of International Monetary Arrangements, chapter 10, pages 183-211, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
    14. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1262-1292, December.
    16. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 711-756, May.
    17. Chari, V. V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2004. "Financial crises as herds: overturning the critiques," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 128-150, November.
    18. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June.
    19. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-195, July.
    20. Morris, S. & Shin, H.S., 1998. "A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 149, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    21. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-FE-03, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Rigobon, Roberto, 2002. "Disinflation and fiscal reform: a neoclassical perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 265-297, December.
    23. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    24. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "The Mexican Peso Crisis? How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?," NBER Working Papers 6334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Agénor,Pierre-Richard & Miller,Marcus & Vines,David & Weber,Axel (ed.), 1999. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770804.
    26. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    27. Peter M. Garber, 1998. "Derivatives in International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 6623, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Ó Gráda, Cormac & White, Eugene N., 2003. "The Panics of 1854 and 1857: A View from the Emigrant Industrial Savings Bank," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(1), pages 213-240, March.
    29. Marina Halac & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2004. "Distributional Effects of Crises: The Financial Channel," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2004), pages 1-67, August.
    30. Fernando Broner, 1999. "On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy," Economics Working Papers 840, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2002.
    31. Cavallari, Lilia & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2000. "Shadow rates and multiple equilibria in the theory of currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 275-286, August.
    32. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "Delaying the Inevitable: Interest Rate Defense and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 404-424, April.
    33. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
    2. Kathy Yuan & Emre Ozdenoren & Itay Goldstein, 2008. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," 2008 Meeting Papers 276, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    4. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2010. "A Large Trader in Bubbles and Crashes: an Application to Currency Attacks," Working Papers 1004, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    7. Kris James Mitchener & Gonçalo Pina, 2016. "Pegxit Pressure: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard," NBER Working Papers 22844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 711-756, May.
    9. Pablo Kurlat, 2015. "Optimal Stopping in a Model of Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 212-226, April.
    10. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    11. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
    12. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    13. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
    14. Gene Ambrocio, 2020. "Rational exuberance booms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 263-282, January.
    15. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2020. "Pegxit pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    16. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    18. Chong Huang, 2011. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks: Reputation, Learning, and Coordination," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    19. Welburn, Jonathan William & Hausken, Kjell, 2015. "A Game-Theoretic Model with Empirics of Economic Crises," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/7, University of Stavanger.
    20. Li, Mei & Milne, Frank, 2014. "The role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 590-620.
    21. Pina, Gonçalo, 2015. "The recent growth of international reserves in developing economies: A monetary perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 172-190.
    22. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2005. "Market Expectations and Currency Crises: Theory and Empirics," 2005 Meeting Papers 174, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
    24. Jonathan William Welburn & Kjell Hausken, 2017. "Game Theoretic Modeling of Economic Systems and the European Debt Crisis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(2), pages 177-226, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    2. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    3. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2008. "Vulnerability of currency pegs: evidence from Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4909, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 2009. "Speculative attacks: A laboratory study in continuous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1064-1082, October.
    5. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
    6. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    8. Li, Mei & Milne, Frank, 2014. "The role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 590-620.
    9. Feltenstein, Andrew & Rochon, Céline, 2009. "Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 396-409, September.
    10. Christian Bauer & Philip Ernstberger, 2014. "The Dynamics of Currency Crises---Results from Intertemporal Optimization and Viscosity Solutions," Research Papers in Economics 2014-06, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    11. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2007. "The Role Of Large Players In A Dynamic Currency Attack Game," Working Paper 1148, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    13. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "Government finance in the wake of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 401-440, April.
    14. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2010. "A Large Trader in Bubbles and Crashes: an Application to Currency Attacks," Working Papers 1004, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    15. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
    16. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
    18. Mei Li & Junfeng Qiu, 2011. "Endogenous inflows of speculative capital and the optimal currency appreciation path," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(1), pages 364-379, February.
    19. Tullio Gregori, 2009. "Currency crisis duration and interest defence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 256-267.
    20. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2020. "Pegxit pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.