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Devaluation without common knowledge

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  • Celine Rochon

Abstract

In an economy with a fixed exchange rate regime that suffers a random adverse shock, we study the strategies of imperfectly and sequentially informed speculators that may trigger an endogenous devaluation before it occurs exogenously. The game played by the speculators has a unique symmetric Nash equilibrium which is a strongly rational expectation equilibrium in the set of all strategies with delay. Uncertainty about the extent to which the Central Bank is ready to defend the peg extends the ex ante mean delay between the exogenous shock and the devaluation. We determine endogenously the rate of devaluation. Forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics

Suggested Citation

  • Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2006fe03
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    File URL: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk/file_links/finecon_papers/2006fe03.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 2009. "Speculative attacks: A laboratory study in continuous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1064-1082, October.
    3. Feltenstein, Andrew & Rochon, Céline, 2009. "Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 396-409, September.
    4. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2007. "The Role of Large Players in a Dynamic Currency Attack Game," Working Papers 1148, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    5. Li, Mei & Milne, Frank, 2014. "The role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 590-620.

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