IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Can good events lead to bad outcomes? Endogenous banking crises and fiscal policy responses

  • Feltenstein, Andrew
  • Rochon, Céline

In this paper, we study the impact of changes in the urban labor force and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and bank failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate, or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W53-4W9XBCK-1/2/b50ed13e1ac5c3b5d91c2bab8cf3b0e5
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 396-409

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:396-409
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  2. V.V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1995. "Inside money, outside money and short term interest rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Pamela A. Labadie, 1995. "Financial intermediation and monetary policy in a general equilibrium banking model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Feltenstein, Andrew, 1992. "Oil prices and rural migration: the Dutch disease goes south," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-291, June.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1995. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-Fulfilling Features," NBER Working Papers 5285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June.
  10. Altig, David E & Carlstrom, Charles T & Lansing, Kevin J, 1995. "Computable General Equilibrium Models and Monetary Policy Advice," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1472-93, November.
  11. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
  12. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Edward C. Prescott & Terry Fitzgerald & Fernando Alvarez, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Staff Report 153, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
  14. Christophe Chamley, 1999. "Coordinating Regime Switches," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 869-905, August.
  15. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1998. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 2015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  17. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
  18. Andrew Feltenstein & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2001. "Big Bang Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms; An Intertemporal Analysis with An Application to China," IMF Working Papers 01/98, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:20:y:2009:i:4:p:396-409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.