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Can Good Events Lead to Bad Outcomes? Endogenous Banking Crises and Fiscal Policy Responses

  • Andrew Feltenstein
  • Céline Rochon

In this paper, we study the impact of labor market restructuring and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and banks failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends, or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing.

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Paper provided by Oxford Financial Research Centre in its series OFRC Working Papers Series with number 2008fe03.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2008fe03
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  1. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1995. "Inside Money, Outside Money, and Short-Term Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1354-86, November.
  2. David Altig & Charles T. Carlstrom & Kevin J. Lansing, 1995. "Computable general-equilibrium models and monetary policy advice," Working Paper 9503, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  3. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
  4. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
  7. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
  9. Andrew Feltenstein & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2001. "Big Bang Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms; An Intertemporal Analysis with An Application to China," IMF Working Papers 01/98, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
  11. Feltenstein, Andrew, 1992. "Oil prices and rural migration: the Dutch disease goes south," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-291, June.
  12. Christophe Chamley, 1999. "Coordinating Regime Switches," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 869-905, August.
  13. Pamela A. Labadie, 1995. "Financial intermediation and monetary policy in a general equilibrium banking model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
  16. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
  17. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June.
  18. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
  19. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
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