IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1170.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long Term Effects of Cash Transfer Programs in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Orazio Attanasio
  • Lina Cardona-Sosa
  • Carlos Medina
  • Costas Meghir
  • Christian Posso

Abstract

Conditional Cash transfer (CCT) programs have been shown to have positive effects on a variety of outcomes including education, consumption and health visits, amongst others. We estimate the long-run impacts of the urban version of Familias en Acción, the Colombian CCT program on crime, teenage pregnancy, high school dropout and college enrollment using a Regression Discontinuity design on administrative data. ITT estimates show a reduction on arrest rates of 2.7pp for men and a reduction on teenage pregnancy of 2.3pp for women. High school dropout rates were reduced by 5.8pp and college enrollment was increased by 1.7pp for men. **** RESUMEN: Los programas de transferencias condicionadas de dinero (CCT) han mostrado tener efectos positivos de corto plazo en educación, consumo, y asistencia a citas médicas, entre otros. Nosotros estimamos los impactos de largo plazo del CCT urbano Colombiano Familias en Acción sobre crimen, fecundidad adolescente, deserción escolar en secundaria, y matrícula en postsecundaria, utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua con datos administrativos. Estimadores ITT muestran una reducción de 2.7 pp en las tasas de arresto de hombres y una reducción en la fecundidad adolescente de mujeres de 2.3 pp. Las tasas de deserción de secundaria se reducen en 5.8 pp, y para los hombres la matrícula postsecundaria se incrementa en 1.7 pp.

Suggested Citation

  • Orazio Attanasio & Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina & Costas Meghir & Christian Posso, 2021. "Long Term Effects of Cash Transfer Programs in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1170, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1170
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1170
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1170
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1170?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baez, Javier E. & Camacho, Adriana, 2011. "Assessing the Long-term Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers on Human Capital: Evidence from Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 5751, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 14(4), pages 909-946, December.
    3. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    4. Orazio P. Attanasio & Veruska Oppedisano & Marcos Vera-Hernández, 2015. "Should Cash Transfers Be Conditional? Conditionality, Preventive Care, and Health Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 35-52, April.
    5. Orazio Attanasio & Erich Battistin & Alice Mesnard, 2012. "Food and Cash Transfers: Evidence from Colombia," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(559), pages 92-124, March.
    6. Jesse M. Cunha, 2014. "Testing Paternalism: Cash versus In-Kind Transfers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 195-230, April.
    7. Filmer,Deon P. & Friedman,Jed & Kandpal,Eeshani & Onishi,Junko, 2018. "Cash Transfers, Food Prices, and Nutrition Impacts on Nonbeneficiary Children," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8377, The World Bank.
    8. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
    9. Orazio Attanasio & Elena Pastorino, 2020. "Nonlinear Pricing in Village Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 207-263, January.
    10. Kelly Foley & Giovanni Gallipoli & David A. Green, 2014. "Ability, Parental Valuation of Education, and the High School Dropout Decision," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 49(4), pages 906-944.
    11. Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2002. "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1249-1287, November.
    12. Lance Lochner & Enrico Moretti, 2004. "The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-Reports," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 155-189, March.
    13. Lee, David S. & Card, David, 2008. "Regression discontinuity inference with specification error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 655-674, February.
    14. Juan M. Villa, 2018. "The continuous treatment effect of an antipoverty program on children's educational attainment: Colombia's Familias en Accion," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 1239-1262, August.
    15. Joseph P. Romano & Michael Wolf, 2005. "Exact and Approximate Stepdown Methods for Multiple Hypothesis Testing," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 94-108, March.
    16. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    17. Dennis Egger & Johannes Haushofer & Edward Miguel & Paul Niehaus & Michael Walker, 2022. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2603-2643, November.
    18. Matias D. Cattaneo & Michael Jansson & Xinwei Ma, 2018. "Manipulation testing based on density discontinuity," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 18(1), pages 234-261, March.
    19. Adriana Camacho & Emily Conover, 2011. "Manipulation of Social Program Eligibility," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 41-65, May.
    20. Paul Schultz, T., 2004. "School subsidies for the poor: evaluating the Mexican Progresa poverty program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 199-250, June.
    21. Molina-Millan, Teresa & Barham, Tania & Macours, Karen & Maluccio, John A. & Stampini, Marco, 2016. "Long-term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America: Review of the Evidence," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7891, Inter-American Development Bank.
    22. Orazio Attanasio & Alice Mesnard, 2006. "The Impact of a Conditional Cash Transfer Programme on Consumption in Colombia," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 421-442, December.
    23. Abhijit Banerjee & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A Olken & Elan Satriawan & Sudarno Sumarto, "undated". "Food vs. Food Stamps: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia," Working Papers 2373, Publications Department.
    24. Kenneth I. Wolpin & Petra E. Todd, 2006. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1384-1417, December.
    25. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2597.
    26. Douglas Almond & Hilary W. Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, 2011. "Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 387-403, May.
    27. Teresa Molina-Millan & Tania Barham & Karen Macours & John A. Maluccio & Marco Stampini, 2016. "Long-term Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America: Review of the Evidence," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 96136, Inter-American Development Bank.
    28. Hilary Hoynes & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Douglas Almond, 2016. "Long-Run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 903-934, April.
    29. Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 2016. "Efficient computation of adjusted p-values for resampling-based stepdown multiple testing," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 38-40.
    30. Martha Bottia & Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina, 2012. "El SISBEN como mecanismo de focalización individual del régimen subsidiado en salud en Colombia: ventajas y limitaciones," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, December.
    31. Armando Barrientos & Jasmina Byrne & Juan Miguel Villa & Paola Peña, 2013. "Social Transfers and Child Protection," Papers inwopa691, Innocenti Working Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vera-Cossio, Diego A. & Hoffmann, Bridget & Pecha, Camilo & Gallego, Jorge & Stampini, Marco & Vargas, David & Medina, María Paula & Álvarez, Esteban, 2023. "Re-thinking Social Protection: From Poverty Alleviation to Building Resilience in Middle-Income Households," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12925, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Grisolia, Filippo, 2024. "Can cash transfers really be transformative? A literature review of the sustainability of their impacts," IOB Discussion Papers 2024.02, Universiteit Antwerpen, Institute of Development Policy (IOB).
    3. Clotilde Mahé & Philipp Hessel, 2022. "School-age exposure to conditional cash transfers and adult mental health: Evidence from Mexico’s Progresa," Documentos de trabajo 20155, Escuela de Gobierno - Universidad de los Andes.
    4. Beuermann, Diether & Ramos Bonilla, Andrea & Stampini, Marco, 2024. "Can Conditional Cash Transfers Alter the Effectiveness of Other Human Capital Development Policies?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13484, Inter-American Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina & Jairo Nuñez Méndez, 2017. "Impacto de las Transferencias Condicionadas sobre el Mercado de Crédito El caso de Familias en Acción en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 995, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Duque, Valentina & Rosales-Rueda, Maria & Sanchez, Fabio, 2019. "How Do Early-Life Shocks Interact with Subsequent Human Capital Investments? Evidence from Administrative Data," Working Papers 2019-17, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    3. de Gendre, Alexandra & Lynch, John & Meunier, Aurélie & Pilkington, Rhiannon & Schurer, Stefanie, 2021. "Child Health and Parental Responses to an Unconditional Cash Transfer at Birth," IZA Discussion Papers 14693, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Guido Neidhöfer & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Long(er)‐Term Impacts of Chile Solidario on Human Capital and Labor Income," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 209-244, December.
    5. Guido Neidhöfer & Miguel Niño‐Zarazúa, 2019. "The Long(er)‐Term Impacts of Chile Solidario on Human Capital and Labor Income," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(S1), pages 209-244, December.
    6. Del Boca, Daniela & Pronzato, Chiara & Sorrenti, Giuseppe, 2021. "Conditional cash transfer programs and household labor supply," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Craig McIntosh & Andrew Zeitlin, 2021. "Cash versus Kind: Benchmarking a Child Nutrition Program against Unconditional Cash Transfers in Rwanda," Papers 2106.00213, arXiv.org.
    8. Pfutze, Tobias, 2019. "Should program graduation be better targeted? The other schooling outcomes of Mexico’s Oportunidades," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Paredes-Torres, Tatiana, 2017. "The impact of exposure to cash transfers on education and labor market outcomes," MPRA Paper 79008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hızıroğlu Aygün, Aysun & Kırdar, Murat Güray & Koyuncu, Murat & Stoeffler, Quentin, 2024. "Keeping refugee children in school and out of work: Evidence from the world's largest humanitarian cash transfer program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    11. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    12. Einiö, Elias & Overman, Henry G., 2020. "The effects of supporting local business: Evidence from the UK," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. McIntosh, Craig & Zeitlin, Andrew, 2022. "Using household grants to benchmark the cost effectiveness of a USAID workforce readiness program," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    14. Matteo Picchio & Jan C. van Ours, 2020. "Mental Health Effects of Retirement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 419-452, September.
    15. Blaise Melly & Rafael Lalive, 2020. "Estimation, Inference, and Interpretation in the Regression Discontinuity Design," Diskussionsschriften dp2016, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    16. Gaurav Khanna & Carlos Medina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo & Nicolas Torres, 2023. "Formal Employment and Organised Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(654), pages 2427-2448.
    17. Paredes, Tatiana, 2017. "The long-term effects of cash transfers on education and labor market outcomes," MPRA Paper 88809, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Sep 2018.
    18. Dragan Filipovich & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Alma Santillán Hernández, 2018. "Campaign externalities, programmatic spending, and voting preferences in rural Mexico: The case of Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera programme," WIDER Working Paper Series 027, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Dragan Filipovich & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Alma Santillán Hernández, 2018. "Campaign externalities, programmatic spending, and voting preferences in rural Mexico: The case of Progresa-Oportunidades-Prospera programme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-27, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Giesecke, Matthias & Jäger, Philipp, 2021. "Pension incentives and labor supply: Evidence from the introduction of universal old-age assistance in the UK," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CCT programs; human capital accumulation; crime; adolescent pregnancy; RDD; Programas de transferencias condicionadas; acumulación de capital humano; crimen; fecundidad adolescente; RDD.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.