IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/13-45.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Expansion of Higher Education, Employment and Wages: Evidence from the Russian Transition

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Kyui

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of an educational system expansion on labour market outcomes, drawing upon a 15-year natural experiment in the Russian Federation. Regional increases in student intake capacities in Russian universities, a result of educational reforms, provide a plausibly exogenous variation in access to higher education. Additionally, the gradual nature of this expansion allows for estimation of heterogeneous returns to education for individuals who successfully took advantage of increasing educational opportunities. Using simultaneous equations models and a non-parametric model with essential heterogeneity, the paper identifies strong positive returns to education in terms of employment and wages. Marginal returns to higher education are estimated to decline for lower levels of individual unobserved characteristics that positively influence higher education attainment. Finally, the returns to higher education are found to decrease for those who, as a result of the reforms, increasingly pursued higher education.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Kyui, 2013. "Expansion of Higher Education, Employment and Wages: Evidence from the Russian Transition," Staff Working Papers 13-45, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-45
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/wp2013-45.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Walker & Yu Zhu, 2008. "The College Wage Premium and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(4), pages 695-709, December.
    2. Maurin, Eric & McNally, Sandra, 2005. "Vive la revolution! Long term returns of 1968 to the angry students," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3656, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. James J. Heckman & Sergio Urzua & Edward Vytlacil, 2006. "Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 389-432, August.
    4. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "The compelling effects of compulsory schooling: evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 22-52, February.
    5. James J. Heckman & Lance J. Lochner & Petra E. Todd, 2003. "Fifty Years of Mincer Earnings Regressions," NBER Working Papers 9732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Till von Wachter, 2008. "Zero Returns to Compulsory Schooling in Germany: Evidence and Interpretation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 592-598, August.
    7. Heckman, James & Li, Xuesong, 2003. "Selection bias, comparative advantage and heterogeneous returns to education: Evidence from China in 2000," Working Paper Series 2003:17, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    8. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    9. Philip Oreopoulos, 2006. "Estimating Average and Local Average Treatment Effects of Education when Compulsory Schooling Laws Really Matter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 152-175, March.
    10. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- And Four-Year College: Is A Credit a Credit And Do Degrees Matter?," Working Papers 690, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    11. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
    12. Kane, Thomas J & Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1995. "Labor-Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year College," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 600-614, June.
    13. Belzil, Christian, 2007. "The return to schooling in structural dynamic models: a survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(5), pages 1059-1105, July.
    14. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    15. repec:fth:prinin:311 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Eric Maurin & Theodora Xenogiani, 2007. "Demand for Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Lessons from the Abolition of Compulsory Conscription in France," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 42(4).
    17. Thomas Lemieux & David Card, 2001. "Education, earnings, and the "Canadian G.I. Bill"," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 313-344, May.
    18. Markus Frölich & Blaise Melly, 2013. "Unconditional Quantile Treatment Effects Under Endogeneity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 346-357, July.
    19. Gregory, Paul R & Kohlhase, Janet E, 1988. "The Earnings of Soviet Workers: Evidence from the Soviet Interview Project," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(1), pages 23-35, February.
    20. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia E. Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four-Year Colleges: Is a Credit a Credit and Do Degrees Matter?," NBER Working Papers 4268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Uusitalo, R. & Conneely, K., 1998. "Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects in the Becker Schooling Model," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 435, Department of Economics.
    22. Heckman, James J. & Lochner, Lance J. & Todd, Petra E., 2006. "Earnings Functions, Rates of Return and Treatment Effects: The Mincer Equation and Beyond," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & F. Welch (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 307-458, Elsevier.
    23. Eric Maurin & Sandra McNally, 2008. "Vive la Révolution! Long-Term Educational Returns of 1968 to the Angry Students," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-33.
    24. James J. Heckman & Xuesong Li, 2004. "Selection bias, comparative advantage and heterogeneous returns to education: evidence from China in 2000," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 155-171, October.
    25. Blundell, Richard, et al, 2000. "The Returns to Higher Education in Britain: Evidence from a British Cohort," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 82-99, February.
    26. Peter Arcidiacono, 2005. "Affirmative Action in Higher Education: How Do Admission and Financial Aid Rules Affect Future Earnings?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1477-1524, September.
    27. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    28. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2005. "Returns to schooling in Russia and Ukraine: A semiparametric approach to cross-country comparative analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 324-350, June.
    29. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 1998. "Winners and Losers in Russia's Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(5), pages 1094-1116, December.
    30. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    31. Wang, Xiaojun & Fleisher, Belton M. & Li, Haizheng & Li, Shi, 2007. "Access to Higher Education and Inequality: The Chinese Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2823, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    32. Wang, Xiaojun & Fleisher, Belton M. & Li, Haizheng & Li, Shi, 2014. "Access to college and heterogeneous returns to education in China," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 78-92.
    33. James J. Heckman & Xuesong Li, 2003. "Selection Bias, Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Returns to Education," NBER Working Papers 9877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Thomas J. Kane & Cecilia E. Rouse, 1993. "Labor Market Returns to Two- And Four-Year College: Is a Credit a Credit And Do Degrees Matter?," Working Papers 690, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    35. James Heckman, 1997. "Instrumental Variables: A Study of Implicit Behavioral Assumptions Used in Making Program Evaluations," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 32(3), pages 441-462.
    36. Sofia Cheidvasser & Hugo Benítez‐Silva, 2007. "The Educated Russian's Curse: Returns to Education in the Russian Federation during the 1990s," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(1), pages 1-41, March.
    37. Katz, Katarina, 1999. "Were there no returns to education in the USSR? Estimates from Soviet-period household data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 417-434, September.
    38. Bjorklund, Anders & Moffitt, Robert, 1987. "The Estimation of Wage Gains and Welfare Gains in Self-selection," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(1), pages 42-49, February.
    39. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Caner, Asena & Demirel-Derebasoglu, Merve & Okten, Cagla, 2019. "Attainment and Gender Equality in Higher Education: Evidence from a Large Scale Expansion," IZA Discussion Papers 12711, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Lehnert, Patrick & Pfister, Curdin & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2020. "Employment of R&D personnel after an educational supply shock: Effects of the introduction of Universities of Applied Sciences in Switzerland," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Belskaya, Olga & Peter, Klara Sabirianova & Posso, Christian, 2014. "College Expansion and the Marginal Returns to Education: Evidence from Russia," IZA Discussion Papers 8735, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Harry Patrinos & Suhas Parandekar & Ekaterina Melianova & Artem Volgin, 2020. "Returns to Education in the Russian Federation," World Bank Publications - Reports 33976, The World Bank Group.
    5. Kyui, Natalia & Radchenko, Natalia, 2021. "The changing composition of academic majors and wage dynamics: Beyond mean returns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 358-381.
    6. Facundo Quiroga‐Martínez & Esteban Fernández‐Vázquez, 2021. "Education as a key to reduce spatial inequalities and informality in Argentinean regional labour markets," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 177-189, February.
    7. Leszek Wincenciak, 2019. "Evolution of private returns to schooling over the business cycle in a transition economy," Working Papers 2019-19, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Deniz Karaoglan & Cagla Okten, 2022. "The effect of parental job loss on youth transition to employment in Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(2), pages 251-275, June.
    9. Xiaoyan Yu & Shiyong Wu & Wei Chen & Mingxi Huang, 2021. "Sentiment Analysis of Public Opinions on the Higher Education Expansion Policy in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    10. Nobuyoshi Kikuchi, 2017. "Marginal Returns to Schooling and Education Policy Change in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0996, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    11. Qiao Wen, 2022. "Estimating Education and Labor Market Consequences of China’s Higher Education Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-25, June.
    12. Kyui, Natalia & Radchenko, Natalia, 2020. "The Changing Composition of Academic Majors and Wage Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 13591, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Gordey Yastrebov, 2021. "The Demographic Echo of War and educational attainment in Soviet Russia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(22), pages 727-768.
    14. Schultheiss, Tobias & Pfister, Curdin & Gnehm, Ann-Sophie & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "Education Expansion and High-Skill Job Opportunities for Workers: Does a Rising Tide Lift All Boats?," IZA Discussion Papers 15687, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Leonardo Fabio Morales & Christian Posso & Luz A. Flórez, 2021. "Heterogeneity in the Returns to Tertiary Education for the Disadvantage Youth: Quality vs. Quantity Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1150, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Karimi, Seyed M. & Taghvatalab, Golnaz, 2020. "Access to higher education and the likelihood of being married," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 22-33.
    17. Nobuyoshi Kikuchi, 2017. "Marginal Returns to Schooling and Education Policy Change in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0996r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Oct 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pedro Carneiro & Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi, 2017. "Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-36, January.
    2. Ge, Suqin, 2013. "Estimating the returns to schooling: Implications from a dynamic discrete choice model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Nikolov, Plamen & Jimi, Nusrat & Chang, Jerray, 2020. "The Importance of Cognitive Domains and the Returns to Schooling in South Africa: Evidence from Two Labor Surveys," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. P. Lovaglio & S. Verzillo, 2016. "Heterogeneous economic returns to higher education: evidence from Italy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 791-822, March.
    5. John Giles & Albert Park & Meiyan Wang, 2019. "The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, Disruptions to Education, and the Returns to Schooling in Urban China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(1), pages 131-164.
    6. Stanislav Avdeev, 2020. "Zero Returns To Higher Education: Evidence From A Natural Experiment," HSE Working papers WP BRP 236/EC/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
    8. Philip Oreopoulos & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2009. "How large are returns to schooling? Hint: Money isn't everything," NBER Working Papers 15339, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    10. Gensowski, Miriam, 2018. "Personality, IQ, and lifetime earnings," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 170-183.
    11. Cornelissen, Thomas & Dustmann, Christian & Raute, Anna & Schönberg, Uta, 2016. "From LATE to MTE: Alternative methods for the evaluation of policy interventions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-60.
    12. Chuang, Yih-chyi & Lai, Wei-wen, 2010. "Heterogeneity, comparative advantage, and return to education: The case of Taiwan," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 804-812, October.
    13. Nobuyoshi Kikuchi, 2017. "Marginal Returns to Schooling and Education Policy Change in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0996r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Oct 2017.
    14. Wang, Xiaojun & Fleisher, Belton M. & Li, Haizheng & Li, Shi, 2007. "Access to Higher Education and Inequality: The Chinese Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2823, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Freier, Ronny & Schumann, Mathias & Siedler, Thomas, 2015. "The earnings returns to graduating with honors — Evidence from law graduates," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 39-50.
    16. Michael Simkovic & Frank McIntyre, 2014. "The Economic Value of a Law Degree," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 249-289.
    17. Daeheon Choi & Chune Young Chung & Ha Truong, 2019. "Return on Education in Two Major Vietnamese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-30, September.
    18. Sloczynski, Tymon, 2021. "When Should We (Not) Interpret Linear IV Estimands as LATE?," IZA Discussion Papers 14349, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Ozturk, Ahmet & Tumen, Semih, 2018. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Student Protests in Late 1970s and the Subsequent Military Coup in Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 11733, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Hai Fang & Karen N. Eggleston & John A. Rizzo & Scott Rozelle & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2012. "The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law," NBER Working Papers 18189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Development economics; Labour markets;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:13-45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.