IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Queueing Theoretic Approaches to Financial Price Fluctuations

  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • Ulrich Horst
  • Ronnie Sircar

One approach to the analysis of stochastic fluctuations in market prices is to model characteristics of investor behaviour and the complex interactions between market participants, with the aim of extracting consequences in the aggregate. This agent-based viewpoint in finance goes back at least to the work of Garman (1976) and shares the philosophy of statistical mechanics in the physical sciences. We discuss recent developments in market microstructure models. They are capable, often through numerical simulations, to explain many stylized facts like the emergence of herding behavior, volatility clustering and fat tailed returns distributions. They are typically queueing-type models, that is, models of order flows, in contrast to classical economic equilibrium theories of utility-maximizing, rational, ``representative'' investors. Mathematically, they are analyzed using tools of functional central limit theorems, strong approximations and weak convergence. Our main examples focus on investor inertia, a trait that is well-documented, among other behavioral qualities, and modelled using semi-Markov switching processes. In particular, we show how inertia may lead to the phenomenon of long-range dependence in stock prices.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/math/0703832
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number math/0703832.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0703832
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  2. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  3. Erhan Bayraktar & Ulrich Horst & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "A Limit Theorem for Financial Markets with Inert Investors," Papers math/0703831, arXiv.org.
  4. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  5. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  6. Bohm, Volker & Wenzelburger, Jan, 2005. "On the performance of efficient portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 721-740, April.
  7. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  8. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  9. Potscher, Benedikt M. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 1987. "A Uniform Law of Large Numbers for Dependent and Heterogeneous Data Process," Working Papers 87-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Kraus, Alan & Stoll, Hans R, 1972. "Price Impacts of Block Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 569-88, June.
  11. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June.
  12. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "The Internet and the Investor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 41-54, Winter.
  13. Lux, Thomas, 1997. "Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-38, November.
  14. Brigitte C. Madrian & Dennis F. Shea, 2000. "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior," NBER Working Papers 7682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. J. Doyne Farmer & Paolo Patelli & Ilija I. Zovko, 2003. "The Predictive Power of Zero Intelligence in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0309233, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2004.
  16. Volker Böhm & Nicole Deutscher & Jan Wenzelburger, 2000. "Endogenous Random Asset Prices in Overlapping Generations Economies," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 23-38.
  17. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  18. Wenzelburger, Jan, 2004. "Learning to predict rationally when beliefs are heterogeneous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2075-2104, September.
  19. Eckhard Platen & Martin Schweizer, 1998. "On Feedback Effects from Hedging Derivatives," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 67-84.
  20. Hans Föllmer & Martin Schweizer, 1993. "A Microeconomic Approach to Diffusion Models For Stock Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23.
  21. Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
  22. Umut Çetin & Robert Jarrow & Philip Protter, 2004. "Liquidity risk and arbitrage pricing theory," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 311-341, 08.
  23. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March.
  24. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor, 2005. "Arbitrage In Fractal Modulated Black–Scholes Models When The Volatility Is Stochastic," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 283-300.
  25. Erhan Çinlar, 1975. "Exceptional Paper--Markov Renewal Theory: A Survey," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(7), pages 727-752, March.
  26. Mattias Jonsson & Jussi Keppo, 2002. "Option pricing for large agents," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 261-272.
  27. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
  28. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  29. Volker Böhm & Carl Chiarella, 2005. "Mean Variance Preferences, Expectations Formation, And The Dynamics Of Random Asset Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 61-97.
  30. Erhan Bayraktar & H. Vincent Poor & Ronnie Sircar, 2007. "Estimating the Fractal Dimension of the S&P 500 Index using Wavelet Analysis," Papers math/0703834, arXiv.org.
  31. Sergio Bianchi, 2005. "Pathwise Identification Of The Memory Function Of Multifractional Brownian Motion With Application To Finance," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 255-281.
  32. Hugh Luckock, 2003. "A steady-state model of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 385-404.
  33. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  34. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0703832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.